【Lead】: During this cycle, the fundamental expectations of a recovery-driven rise in domestic supply and the gradual accumulation of port methanol inventory have largely materialized. Although some data points fell short of expectations due to unplanned circumstances, the overall trends were broadly consistent with projections, and the market had already priced them in. Given the uncertainty in forecast data, market participants have remained cautious in their operations. As a result, recent market movements have been driven mainly by macro sentiment.
I. Domestic methanol supply side
This week, domestic supply rose as some units resumed operations. Looking ahead, multiple methanol units across Northwest China, North China, and East China have scheduled maintenance plans, which are expected to lower domestic supply again in the short term before it recovers as units come back online. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of these unit changes.
On the import supply side, due to a combination of factors during the week, the unloading speed of international vessels fell short of expectations, and import volumes dropped considerably, while overall port methanol inventory saw relatively limited changes. Looking ahead, typhoon weather has led to access controls at some ports, and international vessels are avoiding unloading during this period. The impact of port reopening schedules on unloading speed deserves close attention. At present, unloading volumes from international vessels in the coming week are expected to be extremely low, with some vessel unloading schedules being postponed.
II. Methanol inventory changes
Relatively speaking, recent changes in domestic methanol producer inventories have been modest, and are highly correlated with market sentiment and downstream buying interest during the cycle. When market sentiment is positive or when olefin downstream units are procuring externally, both shipments and pickups run smoothly, leading to inventory declines; when sentiment is weak, the opposite occurs. Overall, recent producer inventory changes have been limited.
Coastal methanol inventories have recently been in a phase of staged accumulation. This week, however, due to multiple factors, some international vessels remained at anchorage without unloading, and unloading speeds fell short of expectations. Looking at the expected trend, inventories in the next cycle will be significantly affected by typhoon weather and may decline again, but may rise later as shipping resumes. Specific attention should be paid to the unloading speed of international vessels.
III. Summary
On the fundamentals side, domestic supply recovered and rose this week, while import supply declined, and overall downstream demand changed little, resulting in a relatively balanced but stalemated domestic supply-demand situation with limited inventory changes. Looking ahead, domestic supply is expected to decrease next week, import supply is set to shrink substantially, and demand is also expected to decline. The overall supply-demand gap may return to negative, and total domestic methanol inventories may decline. Thereafter, attention should be paid to the impacts of weather, geopolitical situations, and other factors on upstream and downstream unit operating rates.
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