Introduction: Repeated fluctuations in US-Iran geopolitical tensions pushed Brent crude's weekly average price higher, strongly underpinning pyrolysis C9 from the cost side. Domestically, several units resumed production, leading to a modest increase in supply. Profitability diverged across the two major downstream sectors: gross margins for industrial aromatic solvents retreated, while C9 thermally polymerized petroleum resin turned loss-making. Downstream buyers grew increasingly resistant to high-priced feedstock. Cost-side positives offset demand-side pressure, driving pyrolysis C9 prices up sharply; the market is expected to consolidate in the short term.
Domestic spot market: Nationwide quotes rise broadly; regional price spreads remain relatively stable
Data source: Chempricehub Information
Table 1 Regional pyrolysis C9 price comparison in China (Unit: RMB/ton)
| Product | Region/Category | Current Period Avg. | Previous Period Avg. | Change | Change % | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pyrolysis C9 | Northeast | 4800 | 4450 | +350 | +7.87% | RMB/ton |
| Pyrolysis C9 | North China | 5050 | 4750 | +300 | +6.32% | RMB/ton |
| Pyrolysis C9 | East China | 5012 | 4712 | +300 | +6.37% | RMB/ton |
| Pyrolysis C9 | Central China | 5050 | 4750 | +300 | +6.32% | RMB/ton |
| Pyrolysis C9 | South China | 5080 | 4711 | +369 | +7.83% | RMB/ton |
Data source: Chempricehub Information
During the current period, regional pyrolysis C9 quotes rose substantially across the board, lifting the national average price to RMB 5,010/ton, up RMB 332/ton or 7.10% from the previous period. By region, Northeast China and South China led the gains with increases of RMB 350/ton and RMB 369/ton, respectively, while North China, East China and Central China each rose by RMB 300/ton. The price spread between North China and East China held at RMB 38/ton. With a sample enterprise in East China undergoing a maintenance shutdown, the cross-regional arbitrage window has not yet opened, and inter-regional cargo flows remain limited. Sinopec East China's listed price on August 27 stood at RMB 5,012/ton, up RMB 300/ton week over week. Independent refiners actively pushed quotes higher, and the market showed strong price-supporting sentiment.
Core drivers: Multiple factors at play, with cost-side positives taking the lead and downstream divergence creating constraints
Table 2 Price comparison along China's pyrolysis C9 industry chain (Unit: RMB/ton)
| Product | Region/Category | 2026/8/27 | 2026/8/20 | Change | Change % | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pyrolysis C9 | Nationwide | 5010 | 4678 | +332 | +7.10% | RMB/ton |
| Industrial aromatic solvent | Nationwide | 6388 | 6116 | +272 | +4.45% | RMB/ton |
| C9 petroleum resin | Nationwide | 6116 | 5994 | +122 | +2.04% | RMB/ton |
Data source: Chempricehub Information
1. Cost side: Middle East geopolitical disturbances push up average crude prices, cementing cost support
Although the US and Iran have broadly reached a consensus on a ceasefire agreement, bilateral relations remain subject to uncertainties, and geopolitical risks continued to disrupt the market repeatedly. Brent crude's weekly average price stood at USD 91.35/barrel, up USD 1.53/barrel or 1.70% from the previous period. Within the week, oil prices initially spiked and then retreated; as expectations for US-Iran talks intensified later in the period, crude fell for three consecutive days. The geopolitical premium lifted crude's weekly average, raising the cost floor for pyrolysis C9 and giving refiners ample confidence to push quotes upward.
2. Supply side: Post-turnaround restarts add modest supply, creating marginal bearish pressure
During the week, Shenghong Refining & Chemical completed its maintenance and resumed operations, while load rates at several other units fluctuated slightly. Pyrolysis C9 output for the current period was 62,300 tons, up 100 tons from the previous period, with capacity utilization at 78.44%, up 0.19 percentage points. Multiple units, including Jincheng Petrochemical, Yanshan Petrochemical and Yangzi Petrochemical, remain under long-cycle major turnarounds. Output is expected to rise further to 63,200 tons in the next period, with supply continuing to increase modestly and exerting slight downward pressure on prices—though not enough to offset the upward momentum from the cost side.
3. Demand side: Downstream profitability diverges markedly; buyers procure on rigid demand only, with rising resistance to high prices
Operating rates at the two major downstream sectors moved in opposite directions. Capacity utilization for industrial aromatic solvents held steady at 54.45%, with gasoline replenishment demand providing rigid-demand support. However, feedstock prices rose faster than product prices, pulling processing margins down from RMB 210/ton to RMB 100/ton, a decline of 52.38%. Capacity utilization for C9 thermally polymerized petroleum resin fell to 48.69%, down 1.74 percentage points. Hit by sharply higher feedstock costs, theoretical processing profit turned negative, to RMB -91/ton. Resin downstream buyers resisted high-priced feedstock, maintaining only rigid-demand purchases with weak stocking intentions. Overall, downstream buyers procured mainly on a rigid-demand basis, with little appetite for large-scale stockpiling, which constrained the upside for pyrolysis C9 prices to a certain extent.
Industry chain transmission: Cost passes down from upstream; downstream profit divergence caps market flexibility
The upside from higher crude oil passed down the chain to pyrolysis C9, driving market quotes sharply higher. However, downstream profitability trends diverged: industrial aromatic solvents benefited earlier from gasoline replenishment-driven price support but later followed crude downward as margins contracted sharply. C9 thermally polymerized petroleum resin struggled to pass feedstock cost increases downstream, slipping into losses, with buyers turning cautious on the sidelines and cost transmission becoming blocked. Pyrolysis C9 prices rose on geopolitical cost support, but weak resin-sector demand has created a market dynamic of cost support on one side and demand containment on the other.
Summary and outlook
On balance, Middle East geopolitical disturbances pushed up average crude prices, constituting the core bullish driver for pyrolysis C9. On the bearish side, domestic supply increased modestly, and C9 petroleum resin downstream buyers resisted high-priced feedstock. With bullish and bearish factors offsetting each other, pyrolysis C9 prices rose substantially, and the market is expected to consolidate in the short term.
Looking ahead to next week, international crude futures carry expectations of downward movement, and cost-side support is expected to weaken. Shenghong Refining & Chemical's production is stabilizing, and market supply will continue to increase modestly. On the demand side, industrial aromatic solvents are expected to track gasoline's weak performance, with margins projected to soften further. The loss-making situation for C9 thermally polymerized petroleum resin is unlikely to reverse quickly; only Liaoning Yufu has shipment plans, while downstream buyers remain cautious about large-scale stockpiling. Pyrolysis C9 is expected to trade mainly in the range of RMB 4,950-5,150/ton. Going forward, key watch points include Middle East geopolitical developments, crude price fluctuations, and the operating rates and procurement pace of the two major downstream products.
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