Overview: Spot liquidity has tightened extremely, with funds squeezing shorts on delivery expectations, compounded by the prolonged U.S.–Iran standoff and no near-term hope of import replenishment. Reality and expectations have reinforced each other to push prices higher. As of August 26, the mainstream market price of diethylene glycol reached 11,485 yuan/ton, up 2,108.67 yuan/ton week-on-week, an increase of 20.75%.
This round of diethylene glycol price increases has been mainly supply-driven. In August, imported cargo arrivals totaled only around 3,000 tons, together with 5,000 tons of domestic supply, bringing the monthly cargo total to less than 10,000 tons. Spot circulation has continued to tighten, and prices showed no sign of capping after entering the 11,000 mark. Pricing power has remained firmly in sellers' hands, propelling prices to a near 20-year high due to supply scarcity.
However, the extremely high prices have also created obvious problems. Downstream unsaturated resin plants are operating at relatively stable utilization rates, but due to the high diethylene glycol prices, they have partly switched to substitute feedstocks such as ethylene glycol/propylene glycol, reducing their purchases of diethylene glycol. Polyurethane producers are only maintaining procurement for essential needs, and some manufacturers are considering abandoning undelivered contract volumes because of the price level. In the polyester sector, as the traditional peak demand season approaches, autumn/winter orders would normally have been placed by now. This year, however, the geopolitical crisis has raised downstream users' procurement costs and led them to cut back on stockpiling, making it difficult to sustain high sales-to-production ratios. Mills may undergo a new round of operating rate adjustments.
| Vessel Name | Quantity (tons) | Berth | Arrival Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Formosa Ruby | 1,000 | Changjiang International | August 16 |
| Haoyuan 3 | 5,000 | Shuntian | August 17 |
| Haoyuan 3 | 2,600 | Changjiang International No.2 | August 25 |
| Silver Aster | 1,000 | Changjiang International | August 27 |
| Chemical Sol | 1,150 | Changjiang International | August 27 |
| Total | 10,750 |
Data source: Chempricehub
In the near term, the tight supply pattern for diethylene glycol remains unchanged: domestic output can hardly increase significantly, and there is no clear timeline for the return of Middle East imports. Since mid-to-late August, the resumption of production at domestic plants such as Hengli and Shenghong has lifted output slightly, but the increase in spot supply is limited. On the import side, the Strait transit issue remains unresolved, with no volumes reported from Saudi Arabia, Iran, or Kuwait. On the information front, any change in Strait transit conditions could trigger chain reactions. Macro factors remain the main guide for chemical price trends overall, while the strong reality of tightened diethylene glycol supply fundamentals remains intact, providing solid support for the price floor. Prices are expected to fluctuate widely with a firm bias.
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