Lead: Since late August, multiple rounds of mediation have pushed for the restart of US–Iran negotiations, raising expectations for improved navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Market concerns over geopolitical risks and supply have somewhat eased, and international crude oil prices have pulled back after an initial surge. The gasoline market has remained relatively firm, and aromatics-related products have followed gasoline fluctuations, running on the strong side.
1. Gasoline market trends firm, supporting aromatics-related products to remain strong
Recently, with the possibility of de-escalation in geopolitical conflicts emerging once again, Brent crude oil prices stood at $87.84 per barrel, down $5.94 per barrel from last week, a decline of 6.29%. The gasoline market's resilience has become increasingly evident, with 92# gasoline prices at 8,935 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton from last week, an increase of 0.48%. Overall supply of aromatics-related products remains at low levels. Combined with recent replenishment demand from gasoline barge orders, aromatics-related products strengthened first and then weakened, ultimately closing higher.
2. Analysis of demand-side changes
Geopolitical conflicts remain recurring, and crude oil futures are experiencing wide fluctuations. Brent crude has recently fallen for three consecutive sessions, yet the domestic gasoline market has shown relatively strong resilience. Coupled with the consumption and replenishment of gasoline barge orders, aromatics-related products have maintained an overall balance between production and sales, with only one trading day seeing no premium in auctions.
3. Market outlook
Crude oil: Geopolitical news from the Middle East remains mixed at present. If Qatari mediation makes progress, the US and Iran begin indirect contact, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is partially restored, and the conflict remains low-intensity, oil prices will face downward pressure. Crude oil is expected to have room for further decline next week.
Gasoline: With the end of the summer season and retail price increases, gasoline consumption is expected to weaken further. However, continued drawdowns from barge orders will help curb inventory growth.
In summary, although crude oil may face downside potential in the future, the uncertainty surrounding geopolitical conflicts remains high. In September, domestic gasoline barge order transaction volumes have already exceeded 200,000 tons, and overall barge order demand continues to provide fundamental support for aromatics-related products. In the short term, with the arrival of the "Golden September, Silver October" season, aromatics-related products are expected to continue their mainly firm volatile trend.
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