Will China's new TMA capacity end the global oligopoly and bring prices back down?

Will China's new TMA capacity end the global oligopoly and bring prices back down?
China already hosts the overwhelming majority of global TMA capacity, with Zhengdan, Baichuan and Taida holding nearly all domestic output after foreign plants exited. The current tightness sits in a capacity vacuum: overseas units are permanently closed, but new Chinese projects have not yet come online. Zhengdan announced a 350 million yuan, 65,000 t/yr green upgrade with a 24-month build, plus a planned 50,000 t plant in Malaysia through a Singapore subsidiary. Changqing Technology also proposed a large new materials base nearby. If these land on schedule, supply could loosen meaningfully by late 2026. But history shows Chinese TMA expansion has repeatedly been delayed by permitting, crystallization-to-anhydride process bottlenecks and environmental compliance, so the oligopoly may persist longer than the headline capacity numbers suggest.