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Why is TGIC capacity still expanding when the market is already oversupplied?

Marcus Hayes
Published on 2026-08-19

Why is TGIC capacity still expanding when the market is already oversupplied?
Overcapacity is now the consensus view on TGIC, and the market has responded with accelerating price declines. Producers complain that low-price competition has disrupted normal order, with some claiming margins have turned negative. Yet new capacity keeps coming: dozens of companies filed TGIC project registrations over the past two years, and fresh expansion plans were announced again in 2022. Industry insiders warn that not every producer holds complete permits, and some may have started building or selling before securing a discharge license. With substantial new capacity expected to release within one to two years, a price war looks unavoidable, and the risk of a broader price collapse is rising.

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  • Sarah Mitchell 2026-08-20 20:19
    The permit angle is the real tell here. When product appears on the market before a discharge license is issued, it usually signals a producer prioritizing cash flow over compliance. Buyers should treat unusually low TGIC offers with caution, because the cost structure of a compliant plant simply cannot support them. Verify supplier documentation before locking in volumes.
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