What is the outlook for China's 1,3-propanediol (PDO) market, and how does it differ from 1,2-PG?

What is the outlook for China's 1,3-propanediol (PDO) market, and how does it differ from 1,2-PG?
China's PG production landscape is structurally distinct from the West. Globally, Dow, LyondellBasell, and BASF dominate, with Dow alone holding about 560,000 tons/year capacity, mostly via PO hydrolysis. In China, roughly 85% of capacity uses the transesterification route (PO with methanol to produce DMC, yielding PG as a byproduct). Total domestic capacity is about 420,000 tons/year, spread across many small players—including CNOOC Shell, Ningbo Dafeng, Tongling Jintai, Shida Shenghua, and Haike Xinyuan—with limited scale and older technology. This byproduct-linked structure means PG output is tied to DMC demand, not PG demand itself, creating supply rigidity. When DMC plants run below capacity or shift to EO-based routes, PG supply tightens quickly, amplifying price swings.