What is driving the recent price surge and subsequent correction in germanium dioxide?

What is driving the recent price surge and subsequent correction in germanium dioxide?
Germanium dioxide prices have been highly volatile. In 2024, supply tightened due to lead-zinc smelting feedstock shortages and stricter environmental rules, while demand from military infrared, satellite solar cells, drones, and fiber optics surged. By late October, germanium product prices had nearly doubled from the start of the year. However, from November onward, high prices dampened downstream buying interest, causing a pullback. By December 20, germanium ingot prices settled at 17,750 yuan/kg, still up 8,350 yuan year-on-year, while germanium dioxide closed at 12,250 yuan/kg, up 6,000 yuan. Looking ahead, China's export controls and tight supply should support another upward cycle despite current buyer hesitation.