What drives China's melamine export volumes and price competitiveness?

China's melamine exports hit a record monthly high in March 2025, with first-quarter shipments reaching 190,000 tonnes, up over 25% year-on-year. The average export price was $725 per tonne, equivalent to roughly 5,000 yuan per tonne before the 13% export tax rebate. The surge was largely a 'grab exports' effect ahead of the rebate cancellation effective April 1, 2025. Producers rushed to ship before the policy change, and monthly export volumes are expected to turn negative in April and May. Full-year 2025 exports are projected at around 650,000 tonnes, with limited room for further growth given that China's international market share is already near its ceiling. The economics remain challenging: exporting one tonne of melamine consumes three tonnes of urea, yet the revenue is less than exporting one tonne of urea directly.