Weekly Outlook on the C5 Industry Chain Market

I. Key Points

1. Iran has proposed a 7-day plan to the US to promote peace negotiations. If accepted by the US, the Strait of Hormuz will fully reopen, leading to a decline in international oil prices. NYMEX WTI crude oil futures (November contract) closed at $92.41/barrel, down $2.20 (-2.33%); ICE Brent crude oil futures (November contract) closed at $104.32/barrel, down $2.28 (-2.14%). China's INE crude oil futures were suspended due to the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday.

2. As of the 25th, Japanese naphtha closed at $908.5/ton, down $22.5/ton from the previous trading day. Singapore naphtha closed at $96.42/barrel, down $2.87/barrel from the previous trading day.

3. Last week, prices for industrial pyrolysis C5 from major state-owned enterprises remained stable. Private enterprise prices dropped by 300–600 RMB/ton this week to 7,100–7,300 RMB/ton, gradually falling below those of major enterprises. The primary reasons for the decline were lower mixed C5 prices and pre-holiday inventory clearance by private pyrolysis C5 producers. By Thursday, driven by crude oil price movements, component feedstocks generally rose, and mixed C5 prices saw some rebound. In downstream deep processing, pentadiene monomer inventories remained low with firm prices, while resin prices stayed steady.

4. During the holiday period, the market for pyrolysis C5 residual liquid maintained stable pricing and executed existing contracts. Shandong gasoline market trends fluctuated, rising then falling. Prices for the substitute product, mixed C5, increased. Market sentiment was mixed, but the pyrolysis C5 residual liquid market remained stable, focusing on contract execution.

5. Last week, domestic isoprene continued to rise. Although crude oil ended a five-day losing streak, private pyrolysis C5 prices remained weak, while quotes from major enterprises held steady. Supply of pyrolysis C5 flowing into the deep processing segment remained limited, with some separation units operating at low loads. This kept on-site supply tight, providing support for producers to maintain prices. Downstream resin production and prices rose simultaneously, offering some consumption support for raw materials, while the curing agent sector maintained rigid demand procurement. However, downstream buyers remained cautious about chasing highs, with most transactions driven by immediate needs. Mainstream ex-factory prices ranged from 9,200 to 10,000 RMB/ton.

6. Last week, domestic piperylene prices stabilized temporarily. Crude oil ended its five-day decline, causing private pyrolysis C5 quotes to weaken, although major units maintained firm prices. Meanwhile, the flow of pyrolysis C5 into the deep processing segment did not increase significantly, with some separation enterprises continuing low-load production, keeping raw material supply tight. On the downstream side, temporary shutdowns at some SIS facilities reduced raw material consumption; orders in the curing agent industry were weak, with many companies planning shutdowns during the inter-holiday period, resulting in low procurement enthusiasm. Overall, the tight supply situation persisted, but downstream demand follow-through slowed. Current raw material prices are relatively high, increasing downstream resistance and making procurement operations more cautious. Mainstream bid/ask prices in the East China market ranged from 13,600 to 14,200 RMB/ton.

7. Last week, dicyclopentadiene maintained a steady trend within the range of 8,900–9,300 RMB/ton. Low-end prices were stable for end-users, while high-end spot prices were subject to negotiation. Pre-holiday stockpiling sentiment existed, and dicyclopentadiene supply remained limited, providing some price support.

8. Last week, mainstream prices for road marking paint C5 petroleum resin ranged from 9,600 to 11,000 RMB/ton. Due to high resin prices, downstream buyers mostly maintained rigid demand procurement. Local shipment volumes slowed, partly due to excessive processing costs hindering sales. Some overly high prices in the market saw minor corrections.

9. Last week, mainstream prices for isoprene adhesive C5 petroleum resin ranged from 11,500 to 13,600 RMB/ton, while cyclohexane-free adhesive C5 petroleum resin ranged from 10,500 to 11,200 RMB/ton. Spot availability remained tight, with virtually no spot quantities available in September. Orders for next month are being negotiated, mostly executing at latest prices, pushing overall prices up to a staged high.

Core Logic: Pyrolysis C5 consolidation; Piperylene largely stable with minor fluctuations; Isoprene slight increase; Dicyclopentadiene temporarily stable; C5 petroleum resins stable with slight upward push.

II. Price Tables

Table 1: Domestic Pyrolysis C5 Industry Chain Summary (Unit: RMB/ton)

III. Market Outlook

Domestic pyrolysis C5 prices are expected to remain temporarily stable. Shandong mixed C5 prices may receive slight support from pre-holiday restocking. Recently, private enterprise pyrolysis C5 prices have been roughly on par with those of major enterprises. In the deep processing sector, pentadiene monomer inventories are low with acceptable prices, while resin terminal users are primarily engaged in rigid demand procurement.

The pyrolysis C5 residual liquid market is expected to remain mainstream stable. Gasoline is trading weakly with oscillations, and there are no changes in mixed C5 supply and demand fundamentals. There is an expectation of restocking before the National Day holiday. Chempricehub Information predicts that refineries will maintain stable prices and shipments for pyrolysis C5 residual liquid in the near term.

Crude oil rose intraday, providing positive guidance to the market. Today, refineries are maintaining firm prices for gasoline shipments. The crude oil and gasoline markets provide support for mixed C5 trends. Chempricehub Information expects the mixed C5 market to remain stable and consolidate.

Piperylene is expected to consolidate at high levels. Crude oil opened higher, and the tight supply pattern for piperylene continues. Producers' willingness to hold prices provides support, but as the holiday approaches, downstream stockpiling is largely complete. Prices are expected to consolidate at high levels amid a wait-and-see attitude.

Isoprene is expected to stabilize temporarily. Crude oil opened higher, and factories have organized low inventories. However, with the holiday approaching, there are expectations of shutdowns in the downstream curing agent industry, and rigid demand in the resin sector is limited. Isoprene is expected to stabilize temporarily.

Dicyclopentadiene is expected to stabilize temporarily. Downstream demand performance is average, but the scarcity of spot supplies is difficult to alleviate in the short term. Factories are maintaining low inventory levels, combined with pre-National Day holiday stockpiling, the market is expected to maintain a consolidating trend before the holiday.

For road marking paint C5 petroleum resin, terminal construction volumes may be delayed due to high raw material prices, and downstream acceptance of current price levels is weak. Additionally, resin supply volumes are gradually recovering, so prices are expected to remain temporarily stable overall with minor corrections. For adhesive C5 petroleum resin, despite the peak season, there remains a supply gap with virtually no excess volume, so prices are expected to stabilize after recent increases.

IV. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Pyrolysis C5 Industry Chain Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons)