October 7: The US-Iran negotiation channel remains open, and the Federal Reserve retains the possibility of further rate hikes, leading to a decline in international crude oil prices. NYMEX WTI crude oil futures (November contract) closed at $88.28/bbl, down $1.16/bbl (-1.30% WoW). ICE Brent crude oil futures (December contract) closed at $100.20/bbl, down $0.38/bbl (-0.38% WoW). China INE crude oil futures were closed for the National Day holiday.
September 30: Trading in the Asian styrene USD market was moderate. RMB-denominated prices rose slightly, and the USD market ended higher on the day. FOB Korea settled at $1,425–$1,435/ton, with the average price up by $5; CFR China settled at $1,385–$1,395/ton, with the average price up by $5. Unit: USD/ton.
September 30: Compared to the previous trading day, theoretical production-sales profit for integrated plants increased by RMB 174/ton to RMB 2,371/ton; theoretical production-sales loss for non-integrated plants narrowed by RMB 993/ton to RMB -658/ton.
Core Logic: During the National Day holiday, the center of gravity in the crude oil market shifted upward. Losses at non-integrated units may result in slower-than-expected supply recovery. Coupled with port inventories at historical lows, the tight spot market situation is difficult to reverse. However, negative feedback from downstream sectors is evident, with utilization rates declining, maintaining a tight balance between supply and demand.
| Product | Region | Sep 29 | Oct 7 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil | Brent Dec | 95.71 | 100.2 | +4.49 |
| Ethylene | CFR NE Asia | 1160 | 1160 | 0 |
| Pure Benzene | East China Market | 11325 | 10355 | -970 |
| Styrene | Jiangsu Market | 10700 | 10925 | +225 |
| Notes: | ||||
| 1. Brent crude: USD/bbl; CFR NE Asia ethylene: USD/ton; Pure benzene and styrene: RMB/ton. | ||||
| 2. Prices for pure benzene and styrene are the closing averages of mainstream markets. | ||||
| 3. All RMB prices in the table above are spot exchange rates including tax. | ||||
| 4. Change rates refer to week-on-week percentage changes. |
Styrene: During the National Day holiday, the center of gravity in the crude oil market shifted upward, providing continued cost support. Non-integrated styrene units are experiencing significant losses, raising the possibility of unplanned reductions in output, which means supply recovery may be slower than expected. Additionally, with port inventories at historical lows, the tight spot market structure is unlikely to change. However, negative feedback from downstream industries is obvious, and capacity utilization rates have declined, keeping supply and demand in a tight balance. In the short term, the styrene market is likely to fluctuate with a slightly bullish bias.
| Data Type | Previous Period | Current Period | Change Rate | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jiangsu Port Inventory | 4.16 | 4.18 | +0.02 | ↗ |
| South China Port Inventory | 2.05 | 2.05 | 0 | ↘ |
| Operating Rate | 66.26% | 63.29 | -2.97 | ↘ |
| Sample Enterprise Inventory | 12.98 | 12.7 | -0.28 | ↗ |
| Notes: | ||||
| 1. Data in the table refers to weekly styrene data; ↘ indicates downward trend, ↗ indicates upward trend. | ||||
| 2. Styrene inventory at Jiangsu ports is reported weekly. | ||||
| 3. Styrene operating rates are reported weekly. | ||||
| 4. Styrene sample enterprise inventories are reported weekly. |
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