I. Key Focus Points
Oct 23: The market is monitoring the potential escalation of conflict between the U.S. and Iran, along with the risk that Saudi energy facilities may continue to be attacked by Houthi rebels, driving international crude oil prices higher. NYMEX WTI December futures settled at $103.27/bbl, up $3.80/bbl (+3.82% WoW); ICE Brent December futures closed at $116.72/bbl, up $3.55/bbl (+3.14% WoW). Shanghai INE crude oil futures for December 2026 rose by CNY 15 to CNY 717/bbl, while the night session gained CNY 27.4 to reach CNY 744.4/bbl.
On Oct 23, international crude oil continued its upward trend. Rising RMB-denominated prices for far-month contracts supported the USD-denominated market, which closed higher intraday. FOB Korea traded at $1,468–$1,478/ton (average price +$18); CFR China traded at $1,408–$1,418/ton (average price +$18). Unit: USD/ton.
On Oct 23, theoretical margins compared to the previous trading day: Integrated plants saw theoretical production-sales profits decrease by CNY 132 to CNY 2,200/ton; non-integrated plants saw theoretical production-sales losses narrow by CNY 87 to -CNY 270/ton.
Core Logic: Crude oil trends remain bullish, providing cost support and maintaining positive sentiment. However, spot market demand is driven primarily by essential procurement needs. The atmosphere for short-covering later in the month has faded, leading to a weakening basis.
II. Price Table
| Product | Region | Oct 22 | Oct 23 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil | Brent Dec | 113.17 | 116.72 | +3.55 |
| Ethylene | CFR NE Asia | 1160 | 1190 | +30 |
| Pure Benzene | East China Market | 10420 | 10550 | +130 |
| Styrene | Jiangsu Market | 11440 | 11520 | +80 |
| Notes: | ||||
| 1. Units: Brent crude in USD/bbl; CFR NE Asia ethylene in USD/ton; Pure benzene and styrene in CNY/ton. | ||||
| 2. Prices for pure benzene and styrene are the closing average prices of mainstream markets. | ||||
| 3. All RMB prices in the table above are cash-inclusive tax prices. | ||||
| 4. Percentage changes represent week-over-week fluctuations. |
III. Market Outlook
Styrene: With crude oil trending strongly and pure benzene hitting its daily limit in Friday's night session, cost support and bullish sentiment are prominent. Supply-demand structure maintains a tight balance. Shell’s styrene unit has resumed operations, but some units at Zhejiang Petrochemical are undergoing maintenance, so there is no obvious sign of significant industry supply recovery in the short term. Supply may return to an upward trajectory after Lianyungang Petrochemical restarts its unit. Recently, downstream demand has been generally weak, price transmission faces obstacles, new orders are under pressure, and spot demand shows no clear improvement. Low port inventories and tight spot supply conditions persist. In the short term, styrene prices are likely to fluctuate at high levels, potentially with significant volatility.
IV. Data Table
| Data Type | Previous Period | Current Period | Change Rate | Expectation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jiangsu Port Inventory (10k tons) | 3.96 | 3.31 | -16.41% | ↗ |
| South China Port Inventory (10k tons) | 4.00 | 4.30 | +7.50% | ↘ |
| Operating Rate | 64.44% | 63.46% | -0.98% | ↘ |
| Sample Enterprise Inventory | 15.02 | 13.30 | -11.45% | ↘ |
| Notes: | ||||
| 1. Data in the table refers to weekly styrene data; ↘ indicates decline, ↗ indicates increase. | ||||
| 2. Jiangsu port inventory for styrene is released before 15:00 on Monday of the current week. | ||||
| 3. East China port inventory for styrene is released before 17:00 on Monday of the current week. | ||||
| 4. Styrene operating rate is released before 18:00 on Thursday of the current week. | ||||
| 5. Styrene sample enterprise inventory is released before 17:00 on Thursday of the current week. |
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