(1) On October 10, propylene feedstock prices rebounded while glycerol prices consolidated in a weak trend. The negotiated price for propylene in Shandong was referenced at 10,550 yuan/ton, and the negotiated price for 99.5% glycerol in East China was referenced at 8,950 yuan/ton.
(2) Last week, the average propylene price in Shandong was 10,307 yuan/ton, and the average liquid chlorine price was 267 yuan/ton. As of the market close on October 10, the weekly average theoretical profit for ECH produced via the propylene route stood at 681 yuan/ton.
(3) Last week, the domestic ECH industry’s weekly average capacity utilization rate was 44.8%, unchanged from the previous week.
(4) Last week, the domestic epoxy resin industry’s weekly average market capacity utilization rate was 49.42%, remaining flat month-on-month. Specifically, the capacity utilization rates for liquid and solid epoxy resins were 50.31% and 34.79%, respectively.
Core Logic: Cost pressures and supply-demand dynamics have led to a market that initially declined before stabilizing. Producers and traders temporarily faced no inventory pressure, while downstream sectors replenished stocks based on rigid demand, resulting in relatively stable trading activity.
| Product | Region | Oct 10 | Sep 30 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Propylene | North China | 10,550 | 9,740 | +810 |
| Glycerol | East China | 8,950 | 9,025 | -75 |
| Epichlorohydrin (ECH) | East China | 11,050 | 11,150 | -100 |
| E-51 Epoxy Resin (Net Water Ex-factory) | East China | 14,800–15,200 | 14,800–15,200 | 0 / 0 |
| ECH Industry Supply-Demand Data | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data Type | Oct 10 | Sep 30 | Change Rate | Weekly Outlook |
| Capacity Utilization Rate | 44.8% | 44.8% | 0% | ↓ |
| Propylene Route Production Profit (Yuan/Ton) | 681 | 1,472 | -53.74% | ↓ |
| Glycerol Route Production Profit (Yuan/Ton) | -917 | -908 | -0.99% | ↓ |
| Note: 1. Capacity utilization refers to the ratio of actual output by producers' units to their total capacity, reflecting production levels. | ||||
| Note: 2. Production profit margin is an industry-wide metric reflecting overall profitability in major regions, calculated as the ratio of industry profit to average price. |
Last week, the domestic ECH market initially declined before stabilizing. Following the National Day holiday, some producers had shipment plans; however, as cost pressures increased across different production routes, their willingness to offer discounts on new orders weakened. Downstream buyers increased low-price replenishment, leading to improved overall trading sentiment compared to pre-holiday levels. Influenced by cost pressures and supply-demand dynamics, the domestic ECH market is expected to remain primarily stable today, with potential tentative upward movements in price centers. Further monitoring of trading activities is required.
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