Weekly Market Outlook for the C5 Industry Chain

I. Key Points

1. Market focus remains on the potential escalation of US-Iran tensions, along with the continued risk of Houthi attacks on Saudi energy facilities, driving international crude oil prices higher. NYMEX WTI futures for December delivery rose by USD 3.80/bbl to USD 103.27/bbl, a week-on-week increase of +3.82%. ICE Brent futures for December delivery rose by USD 3.55/bbl to USD 116.72/bbl, a week-on-week increase of +3.14%. China INE crude oil futures for December 2026 delivery (contract 2612) rose by CNY 15 to CNY 717/bbl during the day session and by CNY 27.4 to CNY 744.4/bbl during the night session.

2. As of October 23, Japanese naphtha closed at USD 1,030.5/ton, up USD 22.11/ton from the previous trading day. Singapore naphtha closed at USD 109.7/barrel, up USD 2.58/barrel from the previous trading day.

3. Last week, prices for industrial-grade cracked C5 fractions offered by major enterprises rose. Prices from private enterprises remained higher than those of major enterprises, providing support to the latter's pricing. Mixed C5 prices were weak in the first half of the week but rebounded somewhat as crude oil prices strengthened. Residual liquid prices remained soft, dragging down deep-processing margins and causing profitability losses; however, deep-processed products generally maintained firm prices. Monomeric piperylene inventories were low, leading to price increases. Although petroleum resin shipments were average, strong cost support persisted.

4. Over the weekend, some markets for cracked C5 residual liquids maintained stability while executing existing contracts. Gasoline market prices rose over the weekend to encourage sales, but downstream buyers remained mostly in wait-and-see mode. Refinery gasoline inventories accumulated, and the mixed C5 market, being a substitute product, continued to rise. Amidst positive market sentiment, cracked C5 residual liquid prices stabilized as contracts were executed.

5. Piperylene prices rose last week. Tight raw material supply constrained production, keeping overall plant operating rates low. Suppliers exhibited strong reluctance to sell, supporting prices. Inventory reductions among certain major suppliers were more pronounced, leading the market upward. On the demand side, the curing agent industry continued to face losses, though some previously idled units restarted, slightly increasing essential demand. The resin industry continued its essential consumption via external procurement. Throughout the week, the market was characterized by a bullish atmosphere, with downstream buyers moderately chasing highs, causing transaction centers to shift upward. Mainstream ex-factory prices ranged from CNY 9,200–10,600/ton.

6. The domestic isoprene market rose last week. Scarce raw material supply acted as a constraint, keeping plant operating loads low. Overall market availability was limited, supporting producers' reluctance to sell. Downstream SIS sector faced pressure from rising prices, inhibiting willingness to take delivery of isoprene; transactions during the week were primarily based on contract fulfillment and prior order deliveries, with only minor restocking after negotiating lower-priced inventory. Other sectors maintained essential procurement, boosting premium transactions for high-priced auction lots. Mainstream offer prices in East China ranged from CNY 14,100–15,100/ton.

7. Domestic dicyclopentadiene (DCPD) continued its upward trend last week. Ex-factory self-pickup prices ranged from CNY 9,700–10,000/ton. Lower-end prices stabilized for long-term clients and prior orders, while spot prices continued to rise. Spot availability was tight, and essential downstream procurement supported firm market performance.

8. Mainstream prices for road marking paint grade C5 petroleum resin ranged from CNY 9,850–11,000/ton last week. Temporary maintenance shutdowns at some units reduced supply volumes. Continued losses in non-deep-processing directions led to smooth shipments by manufacturers, who focused on delivering against orders. Negotiated prices showed steady upward momentum.

9. Mainstream prices for piperylene adhesive grade C5 petroleum resin ranged from CNY 11,800–13,600/ton, while de-cyclized adhesive grade C5 petroleum resin ranged from CNY 10,500–11,200/ton last week. Manufacturers primarily delivered against orders. Raw material tightness caused operating loads to decline, tightening supply and keeping prices in high-level consolidation.

Core Logic: Cracked C5 fractions are currently stable; isoprene prices are rising; piperylene prices are rising; DCPD prices are rising; C5 petroleum resins are performing steadily.

II. Price Table

Table 1: Summary of Domestic Cracked C5 Industry Chain (Unit: CNY/ton)

III. Market Outlook

Domestic cracked C5 fraction prices from major enterprises are expected to remain stable, while prices from private enterprises will maintain firmness. Mixed C5 prices in Shandong rose slightly over the weekend, gradually converging with major enterprise cracked C5 prices. Residual liquid prices continue to drag down deep-processing margins, thereby providing support to deep-processed product prices. Regarding deep processing, monomeric piperylene inventories remain low, supporting firm upward price trends. Although cost support for resins is strong, downstream demand performance is not particularly active.

The cracked C5 residual liquid market is expected to rise. Due to Middle East conflicts, crude oil prices are running high, pushing gasoline market prices up to facilitate sales. Mixed C5 refineries followed this upward trend over the weekend. A significant price gap exists between substitute products and cracked C5 residual liquids; Chempricehub Information predicts an upward trend for the cracked C5 residual liquid market in the near term.

Crude oil prices declined intraday, dampening market participants' enthusiasm to enter. Gasoline market prices rose over the weekend, but sales sentiment was poor. Mixed C5 refinery prices increased over the weekend due to tight spot availability. Chempricehub Information expects the mixed C5 market to consolidate at high levels today.

Isoprene prices are expected to consolidate at high levels. Overall tight supply continues to support isoprene prices, with localized shortages being prominent. However, weak crude oil opening prices and lack of upward momentum from key downstream sectors have led to sustained profit losses, creating risks of operating load adjustments. Prices are expected to remain temporarily stable.

Piperylene prices are expected to consolidate temporarily. Plants currently face no inventory pressure, supporting price retention. However, prices are already at high levels, creating significant resistance to downward transmission. Weak crude oil opening prices introduce instability on the cost side. Piperylene prices are expected to stabilize amid a wait-and-see approach.

DCPD prices are expected to maintain a firm trend. In the short term, there is no incremental spot supply, while downstream essential usage persists despite high costs. Under supply-demand dynamics, the high-price trend is unlikely to diminish.

For road marking paint grade C5 petroleum resin, scarce manufacturer spot availability and persistent cost pressure contrast with weak downstream acceptance of high prices, leading to stagnant market transactions. Prices may see slight increases in the short term. For adhesive grade C5 petroleum resin, manufacturer order books remain decent, supported by strong cost factors and reduced supply volumes, likely pushing negotiated prices higher.

IV. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Cracked C5 Industry Chain Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons)