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Weekly Analysis of Theoretical Profits for Butadiene in China (November 5–11, 2026)

Published on 2026-11-12

I. Qualitative Analysis of Sample Trends

During the current period (November 5–11, 2026), the profit margin for the C4 extraction process was RMB 5,565.46/ton, an increase of RMB 737.01/ton from the previous period. The profit margin for the oxidative dehydrogenation process was RMB 1,429/ton, up RMB 314/ton from the previous period. The profit margin for the coal-to-oil process was RMB 2,250/ton, an increase of RMB 124/ton from the previous period. Within the week, naphtha prices declined, and market conditions for major downstream products weakened amid fluctuations. Supplier prices fell as Sinopec lowered its butadiene prices, with other oxidative dehydrogenation butadiene and Ningxia Coal Group butadiene prices following suit. However, the decline in butadiene prices was less pronounced than that of feedstock costs, leading to continued increases in profit margins for the extraction, oxidative dehydrogenation, and coal-to-oil processes.

Table: Butadiene Production Profit Margins by Process (Unit: RMB/ton)

Product Current Period Previous Period Change Value Change Rate
C4 Extraction 5,565.46 4,828.46 737.01 15.26%
Oxidative Dehydrogenation 1,429.00 1,115.00 314.00 28.16%
Coal-to-Oil 2,250.00 2,126.00 124.00 5.83%

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

II. Forecast Analysis of Sample Trends

Currently, downstream resistance to high butadiene prices has intensified, increasing obstacles to transactions at elevated levels. Market conditions suggest a downward trend, indicating a potential slight contraction in butadiene production profit margins from their current high levels.

III. Comparison of Sample Product Trends and Prices

Sample Description: This analysis monitors theoretical profits based on feedstock prices required for various Chinese butadiene production processes, sample enterprise prices, and market prices, as compiled by Chempricehub Information.

Statistical Criteria: The statistical period for butadiene production profit margins across different processes covers data from Thursday of the current week. Data is released before 17:00 on Fridays during working days.

Comments

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  • Yuki Tanaka 2026-11-12 20:06
    Saw butadiene margins widen as feedstock costs drop faster than product prices. Yet, downstream resistance signals a potential slight contraction ahead. I expect capacity utilization to remain steady, but margin sustaina..
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