Weak port inventories, strong restocking demand in Henan, and narrow-range consolidation of methanol prices.

1. Key Focus Points

① Yulin Yankuang’s methanol auction today started at 3,050 CNY/ton for a volume of 6,000 tons and was fully sold out at the final price of 3,060 CNY/ton.

② Henan Longyu’s 550,000-ton/year acetic acid plant is scheduled to shut down for maintenance on the 25th, with an expected duration of 25 days.

2. Today's Market Trends and Outlook

Table 1: Summary of Domestic Methanol and Related Product Prices (Unit: CNY/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub

[Today's Commentary] The domestic methanol spot price index stood at 3,339.79, down by 19.26. Specifically, the Taicang spot price was 3,855 (-85), and the Inner Mongolia North Line price was 3,105 (-17.5). According to Chempricehub's monitoring of prices in 20 major cities, 7 cities experienced varying degrees of decline, ranging from 17.5 to 85 CNY/ton. Today, the domestic methanol market exhibited regional adjustments. The futures market maintained a weak, narrow-range adjustment. Against the backdrop of collapsed olefin demand at ports and increased supply from domestic arrivals, overall trading sentiment remained moderate, with the intraday basis showing slight weakness. Future attention should remain focused on the intensity of domestic inflows. In inland markets, sentiment along both the North and South lines was generally neutral, with most traders adopting a wait-and-see approach in the afternoon; however, the Henan market performed relatively strongly due to replenishment orders. In the short term, upstream inventories remain relatively low and controllable, supported by rigid demand from mid-to-downstream sectors. The market is expected to continue its pattern of regional, narrow-range adjustments.

3. Basis

Afternoon methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fluctuated within a narrow range. The MA2701 contract opened at 3,170 CNY/ton, reached a high of 3,193 CNY/ton and a low of 3,016 CNY/ton, and closed at 3,130 CNY/ton, down 7 CNY/ton from the previous day's settlement. By close, the open interest for the MA2701 contract was 876,100 lots, an increase of 15,400 lots from the previous trading day.

4. Production Dynamics

Table 2: Summary of Methanol and Downstream Production Dynamics

Data Source: Chempricehub

5. Price Forecast

6. Today, the domestic methanol market showed regional adjustments. The futures market maintained a weak, narrow-range trend. With port olefin demand collapsing and domestic arrivals supplementing supply, overall trading sentiment was moderate, and the intraday basis was slightly weak. Future focus remains on the strength of domestic inflows. In inland markets, sentiment along the North and South lines was generally neutral, with traders mostly waiting and seeing in the afternoon; the Henan market performed relatively well due to replenishment orders. In the short term, upstream inventories remain relatively low and controllable, supported by rigid downstream demand. The market is expected to continue its pattern of regional, narrow-range adjustments.

7. In the medium to long term, facing high post-holiday methanol prices, some mainstream downstream enterprises have shut down operations, significantly alleviating the tight supply situation in the methanol market. Additionally, with vessel arrivals expected in November leading to increased port inventories, regional methanol prices are oscillating within narrow ranges as participants observe. Attention must still be paid to the market impact following the supply-demand tug-of-war in the methanol sector.

8. Market Sentiment

Table 3: Domestic Methanol Upstream and Downstream Practitioner Sentiment Expectations

Data Source: Chempricehub

7. Related Products Status

Glacial Acetic Acid: Prices continued to decline today. Factory prices were further reduced, with general trading activity in the north and room for negotiation at some plants. Traders in East and South China lowered their offers, while downstream purchasing enthusiasm remained thin, resulting in flat market activity. Chempricehub forecasts that the glacial acetic acid market may continue to fall in the short term.

Formaldehyde: The formaldehyde market center continued to weaken today. Cost support was unstable, maintaining a mixed trend of gains and losses. Under production task pressure, factories continued to offer slight discounts to ship goods, maintaining low inventory levels with acceptable profitability. Demand from downstream wood panel producers was flat, limited to rigid needs. Chempricehub forecasts that the formaldehyde market will undergo narrow-range adjustments in the short term.

Dimethyl Ether (DME): The DME market consolidated within a range today. Factories maintained stable pricing for shipments. In Southwest China, traders had a strong willingness to reduce prices to move inventory. End-users mainly purchased according to order volumes. Inquiry levels were decent, but overall procurement remained driven by immediate needs. Chempricehub forecasts that DME market fluctuations will be limited in the short term.

8. Data Calendar

Table 4: Domestic Methanol Data Schedule (Unit: 10,000 tons)

Data Source: Chempricehub
Notes:

1. ↓↑ indicates significant volatility, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%.
2. ↗↘ indicates narrow-range volatility, highlighting data dimensions with changes within 0-3%.