Wait-and-see attitudes are deepening, with ongoing supply-demand tug-of-war

1. Daily Summary

① The domestic fluorspar market remains in a wait-and-see mode today, with limited upside potential for the future. The mainstream price for 97% wet powder fluorspar in the domestic market is referenced at 3,350–3,800 CNY/ton.

② The mainstream contract price for anhydrous hydrofluoric acid (AHF) downstream in October is tentatively referenced at 14,500–14,800 CNY/ton.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic Fluorspar Price Summary (Unit: CNY/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

Today, information regarding the domestic 97% fluorspar concentrate market is mixed. Overall sentiment leans towards a wait-and-see approach, with varying attitudes among market participants. In southern markets, inquiry activity has picked up compared to previous periods. However, facing continuous pressure from sulfuric acid costs, demand-side players are clearly pushing down fluorspar prices. Although spot prices for hydrogen fluoride have risen, most enterprises lack surplus inventory to fulfill orders at these higher prices. In northern markets, phased procurement has been completed, and holders remain firm due to cooling weather and shortages of hydrogen fluoride. Current delivered spot prices across domestic regions are referenced as follows: Inner Mongolia at 3,350–3,400 CNY/ton; Zhejiang at 3,500–3,600 CNY/ton; Jiangxi and Fujian at 3,700–3,800 CNY/ton; Shandong at 3,500–3,600 CNY/ton; Northwest regions at 3,250–3,350 CNY/ton; and Henan and Anhui at 3,250–3,350 CNY/ton. As of press time, the mainstream delivered price for domestic 97% wet powder fluorspar is referenced at 3,350–3,800 CNY/ton.

3. Production Dynamics

The monthly capacity utilization rate for anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in September was 57%.

4. Price Forecast

Fluorspar market bullishness is strong, but future upside space is limited. The anhydrous hydrofluoric acid market is strongly supported by costs.

5. Related Products Status

Anhydrous Hydrofluoric Acid (AHF) Market:
Today, the domestic AHF market shows strong wait-and-see sentiment. Negotiation activities within the market are active, and the transaction center for spot goods has risen significantly. However, order intake is limited, primarily because producers are waiting to see if sulfuric acid prices rebound after the holiday, leading them to secure supply sources via contracts where possible. Post-holiday sulfuric acid prices did indeed rebound as expected, squeezing profit margins again within the market. As of press time, the mainstream delivered price for domestic AHF in October is referenced at 14,500–14,800 CNY/ton, while the Shandong market is referenced at 14,760–15,000 CNY/ton.

Sulfuric Acid:
Today, the Chempricehub index for 98% sulfuric acid stood at 1,245 CNY/ton, a decrease of 7 CNY/ton from yesterday, consistent with morning expectations. Across many regions, the transaction center for domestic sulfuric acid continued to shift downward. In Guangxi, recent consecutive price reductions in surrounding areas have significantly impacted the local market. Downstream buyers have become cautious, with limited willingness to take delivery and insufficient volume in actual transactions. To align with market changes, major acid plants in the region lowered their prices by 100 CNY/ton today, further driving down the transaction center. In Henan, localized declines occurred, and the overall trend remained weak. Some acid enterprises in Jiyuan resumed production after prior maintenance, slightly increasing regional output. Combined with the approaching Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, acid enterprises had a strong desire to reduce inventory before the break, leading to price declines in Jiyuan this week. Demand remained flat, with downstream operating rates staying low and strong wait-and-see sentiment prevailing, expanding negotiation room for actual deals. The Hebei sulfuric acid market operated weakly, with the transaction center shifting slightly downward amid strong wait-and-see emotions. With the dual holidays approaching, some end-users anticipate reduced loads, making improvement in demand unlikely. Sulfuric acid enterprises in Henan lowered quotes again, enhancing the penetration of lower-priced goods into the Hebei market. Some end-users shifted purchasing to Henan, forcing Hebei acid producers to follow suit with concessions. In the short term, the domestic sulfuric acid market is expected to continue its weak downward trend, with the transaction center likely shifting further down.

Refrigerants:
Based on the bulk liquid market in East China, mainstream R32 refrigerant factories maintained high prices through volume control. As of press time, mainstream large manufacturers in East China quoted at approximately 65,500 CNY/ton (coordinated quotes for domestic and export trade). Mainstream market quotes in East China were referenced at 63,500–64,500 CNY/ton, consistent with morning expectations. Market intelligence indicates that inquiries for bulk liquid in channel markets have long been passive, focusing on fixed supply guarantees for OEMs. Recently, quarterly long-term contract negotiations between enterprises have been active, awaiting finalization of actual deals. Shipment frequency for small packages remains slow, so source factories are strictly controlling spot inventory increases. Statistics show that industry-wide operating load for R32 refrigerants remains near 40%. Recently, factory scheduling and consumption forces have contracted further, and export volumes have declined. Under the high-level consolidation of R32 prices, channel holders are seeking opportunities to sell off inventory, showing little interest in buying high-cost cargo, and are waiting for clear pricing signals from mainstream large manufacturers. Chempricehub forecasts that R32 will primarily focus on volume control and price maintenance in the short term, with contract pricing negotiations continuing while monitoring industry equipment dynamics and production schedules.