① Some units restarted, causing the hydrogenated benzene operating rate to rise by 4.81% this week to 59.84%.
② Profits for hydrogenated benzene producers in Shandong decreased this week, falling to 410 CNY/ton.
③ Sinopec raised its posted price for pure benzene in East China by 600 CNY, now standing at 10,800 CNY/ton.
| Product | Region/Category | Oct 15 | Oct 9 | Change (Value) | Change (%) | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hydrogenated Benzene | Shandong | 10300 | 10500 | -200 | -1.90% | CNY/ton |
| Hebei | 10450 | 10400 | +50 | +0.48% | CNY/ton | |
| Shanxi | 10300 | 10150 | +150 | +1.48% | CNY/ton | |
| East China | 10450 | 10650 | -200 | -1.88% | CNY/ton |
Data Source: Chempricehub Information
The hydrogenated benzene market in Shandong exhibited high-frequency volatility at elevated levels this week, following a "rise-fall-rise-fall" pattern. The mainstream transaction range was 10,250–10,560 CNY/ton. Last Friday, escalating tensions in the Middle East drove international crude oil prices sharply higher. Tight domestic spot liquidity for pure benzene pushed prices up, leading hydrogenated benzene to follow suit and hit a historic high. During the weekend market closure, lacking new directional catalysts, downstream buyers with rigid demand coordinated to push prices down, causing both domestic pure benzene and hydrogenated benzene spot prices to retreat from highs. Early this week, although port inventories in East China declined, collective drops in crude oil and aromatics futures weakened market sentiment, putting pressure on pure benzene spot prices and causing hydrogenated benzene to fall accordingly. On Tuesday, tight supply of circulating pure benzene in East China, combined with low expected arrivals for October, led to strong synchronized gains in pure benzene futures and spot markets. Pure benzene prices in East China rose above 11,000 CNY/ton, widening the spread against pure benzene and hydrogenated benzene in northern regions, which prompted hydrogenated benzene prices to rebound. By Thursday, declines in crude oil and pure benzene futures again pressured spot prices for both pure benzene and hydrogenated benzene downward. Overall, weekly prices were primarily driven by crude oil trends, pure benzene futures performance, spot liquidity conditions, and downstream price resistance, resulting in frequent fluctuations within a high-price range.
The domestic hydrogenated benzene market is expected to fluctuate at high levels next week, with a projected mainstream transaction range of 10,000–10,500 CNY/ton.
Crude Oil: Bullish and bearish factors are intensifying. Risk premiums stemming from geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East will continue to support oil prices; however, weak demand expectations and Trump's remarks aimed at suppressing oil prices impose certain constraints, limiting upside potential. International crude oil prices are forecasted to see modest gains next week, with WTI likely trading between $92–$98/barrel and Brent between $103–$109/barrel.
Supply: Domestic refineries' policies prioritizing fuel production over chemicals suggest limited increases in pure benzene supply. Planned maintenance shutdowns at some hydrogenated benzene units are expected to reduce supply.
Demand: Operating rates at key downstream sectors are expected to decline slightly, leading to reduced demand for pure benzene.
Inventory: Port inventories of pure benzene in East China are predicted to draw down next week, tightening spot liquidity.
Overall Outlook: Crude oil prices are still expected to rise modestly, maintaining high cost pressures. Additionally, simultaneous reductions in both supply and demand for domestic pure benzene suggest that prices are likely to remain elevated. However, rising expectations of US interest rate hikes pose headwinds for bulk commodity markets, potentially preventing significant further price increases.
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