Unsaturated Resin: Price fluctuations were limited before the holiday; raw material costs and demand will be key variables after the holiday.

【Introduction】
Since the beginning of September, except for a slight downward shift in the price center of diethylene glycol (DEG), the average prices of other raw materials have continued their upward trend from August, providing adequate cost support. As raw material prices rose continuously, market wait-and-see sentiment intensified. Unsaturated polyester resin (UPR) manufacturers adjusted their quotes steadily upward, with spot mainstream prices rising gradually and limited room for discounts. However, the price increase did not effectively boost downstream procurement willingness: downstream buyers in East and South China only replenished inventory marginally, while those in Shandong and Hebei showed no significant stocking activity. With the National Day holiday approaching, resin factories and some downstream end-users began entering shutdown or reduced production status successively from September 30. Logistics and transportation were simultaneously restricted, and domestic transaction volume is expected to remain sluggish. Currently, trends in the raw material sector are diverging; what changes can be expected in the market during the holiday?

Price Overview:

Table: Performance of East China UPR Before and After National Day Holidays over the Past Five Years

Source: Chempricehub Information

As shown in the table above, price stabilization has not occurred in any of the past five years. In most years, prices exhibited a downward trend, with declining years accounting for 60%. Specifically, the 2021 market was significantly affected by the pandemic. In 2024, raw material prices rebounded slightly after the holiday, leading to a modest post-holiday price increase. In 2025, intensifying domestic oversupply caused prices to continue falling. Looking at normal years (pre-pandemic), the week following the National Day holiday typically saw a downward market trend. Historical weekly data indicates that while declines in down-trending years were generally limited and volatility was lower than in up-trending years, the probability of decline remained high. In recent years, the weekly average price post-National Day has mostly trended downward, a pattern that has influenced market psychology regarding post-holiday UPR performance.

Data Analysis:

With the National Day holiday approaching, some UPR units in East and South China have shut down for maintenance. Partial load reductions were evident in plants in Shandong and Henan, driving the industry operating rate below 30% and causing a significant drop in production. Spot supply continued to tighten. On the raw material side, styrene and maleic anhydride (MA) prices edged higher within narrow ranges but fluctuated repeatedly. Downstream restocking willingness remained limited, with buyers maintaining a "buy-as-needed" approach, resulting in insufficient consumption of resin. Currently, downstream sectors are pressuring resin manufacturers to cut prices, while raw material prices remain relatively firm, making it difficult for ex-factory prices to soften. Amid this ongoing supply-demand tug-of-war, the UPR market maintains a consolidation pattern at high levels. As of September 30, the ex-factory quote for Orthonaphthalene-based 196# resin in the Changzhou market stood at 10,800 CNY/ton, a slight increase compared to early September.

Post-Holiday Forecast:

Chempricehub Information predicts that the domestic UPR market may remain firm and trend steadily upward after the National Day holiday. From the raw material perspective:

• Styrene: Expectations exist for volatile upside movement. The lack of progress in peace talks between the US and Iran, combined with low inventory levels, makes prices prone to rise and resistant to fall. Currently, pure benzene prices have exceeded styrene prices, creating a deep cost inversion. Styrene producers are facing significant losses, raising the possibility of immediate load reductions. This expectation of supply contraction further supports the "easy to rise, hard to fall" price dynamic.
• Maleic Anhydride (MA): Prices are expected to remain firm. Upstream n-butane prices continue to rise, coupled with expectations of higher natural gas prices due to the cooling season, providing strong cost support. Additionally, robust export demand for MA prevents obvious price pullbacks.
• Phthalic Anhydride (PA): Trends will diverge. The price spread between the ortho-process and naphthalene-process continues to widen. Naphthalene-process inventory is at a low level, and news of unit maintenance suggests tight spot availability, predicting continued firm upward movement. Ortho-process prices may experience slight gradual declines.
• Diethylene Glycol (DEG): Likely to continue weakening. Although current inventories are being drawn down slightly, large volumes of Middle Eastern shipments are scheduled to arrive in mid-October. Combined with the anticipated commissioning of the Sinopec-Saudi Aramco GuLei project, both domestic and international supplies are increasing, leading to expectations of further price declines.

Overall, excluding DEG, the raw material sector remains broadly strong. Supply-side support for UPR is adequate, and the post-holiday market is expected to maintain a firm upward trajectory as the primary tone.

From the supply side, domestic UPR units that shut down for the National Day holiday will restart successively, leading to a gradual recovery in supply, though overall inventory pressure remains limited. From the demand side, the industry is entering the traditional peak season ("Silver October"). End-user demand in downstream sectors such as fiberglass reinforced plastics (FRP) and quartz stone may improve, but the actual realization of this demand requires verification. Even if incremental demand emerges, it is unlikely to fully offset new supply additions. Regarding market psychology, raw materials mostly trended upward on the final trading day before the holiday. The direction of upstream raw material markets post-holiday could significantly disturb UPR market sentiment. Short-term traders are largely adopting a cautious wait-and-see attitude, awaiting clearer operational signals. In summary, key competitive factors post-holiday still contain variables, the market direction remains unclear, and the market is likely to sustain its firm upward pattern.