Unsaturated polyester resins kicked off the post-National Day holiday with strong momentum, signaling positive short-term outlooks.

【Introduction】During the National Day holiday, trading in the unsaturated polyester resin (UPR) market largely stagnated, with most UPR producers entering shutdown or reduced-load status. On the first day of resumption after the holiday, buoyed by rising costs, market sentiment turned optimistic, and willingness to push prices up gradually strengthened, leading to cautious upward adjustments in new order quotations. However, downstream enterprises had low pre-holiday stocking intentions. Despite entering the traditional peak season of "Silver October," demand did not show obvious recovery, thereby limiting smooth price transmission. Consequently, although UPR quotations rose, actual transaction volumes struggled to expand significantly.

I. Comparative Analysis of Price Fluctuations in UPR and Related Products Before and After the National Day Holiday

Table 1: Comparison of Price Fluctuations in UPR and Related Products Before and After the National Day Holiday (Unit: RMB/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

As shown in the table above, prices have failed to stabilize over the past five years, with a downward trend prevailing in most years, accounting for 60% of the total. Specifically, the market in 2021 was significantly affected by the pandemic; in 2024, raw material prices rebounded slightly after the holiday, driving a marginal increase in post-holiday prices; while in 2025, intensifying domestic oversupply led to continued price declines. Looking at normal years, the week following the National Day holiday before the pandemic generally saw a downward market trend. Observing weekly historical data, the decline in down years was generally limited, with fluctuations smaller than those in up years, but the probability of decline was higher. In recent years, the weekly average price after the National Day holiday has mostly trended downward. This trend has influenced post-holiday market expectations for UPR to some extent. However, upon return from the holiday, the market experienced a "strong start." As trading gradually warmed up, driven by dual positive factors—high cost support and insufficient pre-holiday stocking by downstream users—UPR prices rebounded. This round of price increases was primarily cost-driven. Styrene, the main raw material, saw its price rise steadily due to significant cost-side increases, exhibiting a high-level upward trend. Most other raw materials also increased in price. However, non-integrated styrene still faced heavy cost pressure, with theoretical profits remaining in a loss position. Additionally, downstream procurement was sparse before the National Day holiday, and many enterprises limited deliveries to existing orders after the holiday, resulting in no pressure on spot supply. Boosted by these favorable conditions of "cost and supply support," despite slow post-holiday demand recovery from downstream sectors, prices moved steadily upward, allowing UPR to successfully achieve a "strong start" after the holiday.

II. Changes in Costs and Supply-Demand Dynamics: Short-term UPR Price Trend Forecast

1. Raw Material Prices Mostly Increased, Providing Solid Cost Support for UPR

Before the holiday, domestic raw materials generally maintained firm quotations. Jiangsu styrene offers were quoted at 10,850–11,000 RMB/ton, but transactions at these high levels were obstructed. After the holiday, prices surged significantly, rising to 11,260–11,450 RMB/ton. While styrene costs are expected to remain supported in the later period, excessive cost pressure on downstream sectors has dampened participation enthusiasm, potentially dragging down the styrene market and leading to an expectation of price pullback. Maleic anhydride liquid anhydride offers in Jiangsu were quoted at 9,000 RMB/ton, but prices continued to rise after the holiday, reaching 9,350 RMB/ton. Phthalic anhydride naphthalene-method offers in East China were quoted at 8,900 RMB/ton, which also rose to 9,100 RMB/ton after the holiday. Diethylene glycol offers in Zhangjiagang were quoted at 6,165 RMB/ton, rising to 6,390 RMB/ton after the holiday. With most major raw material prices concentrated in an upward trend, cost support for UPR remains solid.

2. Expected Increase in UPR Supply in October; Attention Needed on New Plant Commissioning

Since the end of the National Day holiday, there has been strong speculation about price increases in the UPR market, with industry participants paying close attention to the commissioning status of new plants. According to market news, Guangxi Heli New Materials plans to commence production after the National Day holiday. This is expected to create incremental regional supply and further release capacity, leading to continuous supply growth. Affected by these combined factors, the overall supply outlook for the UPR industry shows an upward trend, exacerbating the oversupply situation. Preliminary estimates by Chempricehub Information suggest that under the current background of high supply and low demand, incremental supply will have a certain negative impact on the market. Future focus should be placed on the actual realization of commissioning by relevant enterprises.

3. Expected Increase in Consumption; Cautiously Optimistic Outlook for Short-term UPR Market

During the National Day holiday, most UPR production facilities were shut down or operating at reduced loads, leading to a significant drop in output. After the holiday, related facilities gradually resumed production. From the supply side, domestic UPR facilities that were shut down during the holiday will restart one after another, causing supply volumes to recover gradually, with overall inventory pressure remaining relatively limited. From the demand side, the industry is entering the traditional "Silver October" peak season. End-user demand in downstream fields such as fiberglass reinforced plastics (FRP) and quartz stone is expected to see some recovery, though the actual strength of this recovery remains to be observed. Even if demand increases, it is predicted that it will be difficult to fully offset the pressure from new supply additions. Regarding market sentiment, raw material prices mostly showed a volatile upward trend on the last trading day before the holiday. The direction of upstream raw material markets after the holiday may have a more pronounced impact on resin market sentiment. In the short term, market participants are mostly maintaining a cautious wait-and-see attitude, with operational moves unclear. Overall, key variables influencing the market remain uncertain after the holiday, and the direction of the trend is not yet clear. Therefore, the short-term outlook for the UPR market is cautiously optimistic.