Introduction: Recently, imported methanol supply to coastal regions has remained at a low level, with domestic supply supplements showing no significant increase. While there have been changes in demand-side units, startups and shutdowns have largely offset each other, resulting in limited net variation. Consequently, the overall coastal methanol market remains tight on supply, providing strong support for prices. Coupled with the sustained impact of macroeconomic sentiment, the market continues to maintain strength.
1. Supply
Coastal methanol supply comprises imported volumes and domestic supplementary supplies. Regarding imports, global methanol plant operating rates remain low, and transportation constraints in certain regions have kept import volumes persistently low. There are currently no expectations for recovery; attention should be paid to how changes in international logistics will affect future import supplies.
(Image caption skipped: Figure 1 - Comparison of weekly domestic methanol import trends in 2025-2026 (10,000 tons). Source: Chempricehub)
On the domestic supplementary supply front, vessels along the Yangtze River continue to deliver methanol to downstream coastal users. Additionally, recent attention is focused on the price spread between coastal and inland methanol markets and the resulting arbitrage opportunities. As shown in Figure 2, the price spread between coastal and inland markets has widened significantly recently, opening up inter-regional arbitrage potential. However, inland sources also remain tight, and shipping capacity is insufficient, leading to limited actual increases in supplementary supply from inland to coastal areas. Future developments regarding regional supply flows after domestic supply recovers, and their impact on regional markets, warrant monitoring.
(Image caption skipped: Figure 2 - Comparison of mainstream domestic methanol price trends in 2026 (Yuan/ton). Source: Chempricehub)
2. Demand
During this period, an olefin unit in Jiangsu province restarted, causing the overall capacity utilization rate of MTO units in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region to rise slightly. Looking ahead, an olefin unit in Zhejiang faces potential shutdown. The startup and shutdown plans roughly offset each other, resulting in relatively limited changes in consumption within the coastal methanol market. Subsequently, the Jiangsu olefin unit has a planned shutdown, though the timing is undetermined. Since its supporting units will shut down simultaneously, the impact on the supply-demand structure of the coastal methanol market is expected to be minimal.
(Image caption skipped: Figure 3 - Weekly capacity utilization trend of MTO units in Jiangsu-Zhejiang region, 2025-2026. Source: Chempricehub)
3. Inventory
Within the week, port methanol inventories dropped significantly to low levels as anticipated, driven by low volumes of foreign vessels arriving at ports and healthy withdrawal rates supported by export demand.
(Image caption skipped: Figure 3 [Note: Likely typo in original, should be Fig 4] - Comparison of weekly port methanol inventory trends, 2025-2026 (10,000 tons). Source: Chempricehub)
Looking forward, both supply and demand sides of the coastal methanol market show weakening trends, suggesting that the market may remain in a state of undersupply. Port methanol inventories are expected to continue declining, although the magnitude of the decrease may narrow. Attention must be paid to how variations in inland supplementary supplies will impact the supply-demand structure of the coastal methanol market.
Comments
0