① Jinling Chemical’s scheduled shutdown for maintenance has materialized, confirming expectations of tight supply.
② Pure benzene listed prices have risen to a year-to-date high, providing strong cost support.
In the final week before the National Day holiday, the domestic aniline market maintained a robust upward trend, with the price center shifting higher again. On the supply side, Shandong Jinling’s shutdown for maintenance has been implemented as planned. Additionally, upcoming maintenance schedules for Shanxi Tianji and Jilin Xuyang Kangnai’er have been finalized, further intensifying concerns about spot supply shortages and fostering a bullish sentiment across the market.
Demand performance was mixed. Although some downstream tire manufacturers reduced operating rates or suspended production during the holiday period, major auxiliary chemical plants operated relatively stably, preventing any significant collapse in domestic demand. In contrast, the export market faced pressure from elevated domestic prices, leading to stagnant negotiations for new orders. Regarding cost logic, the raw material pure benzene surged to break through its year-to-date high, providing solid floor support for aniline prices.
Looking ahead, trading activity is expected to slow down during the National Day holiday, with spot buyers becoming more cautious and most market participants withdrawing to observe. However, post-holiday supply contraction expectations remain firm, particularly due to Shanxi Tianji’s planned shutdown for maintenance, which continues to fuel bullish sentiment. Overall, despite the slowdown in trading volume during the holiday, supported by anticipated supply tightening, the aniline market is projected to maintain a high-level consolidation pattern next period, with prices likely fluctuating within the range of 14,800–15,000 RMB/ton.
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