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The supply-demand tug-of-war intensifies, keeping the ethanol market under pressure and rangebound.

Published on 2026-08-28

In August, China’s ethanol output was 835,000 tons, an increase of 28,700 tons month-on-month, up 3.56%. Cumulative production from January to August 2026 reached 7.0051 million tons.

Supply Structure Analysis: Production Process

Among bio-fermentation ethanol producers, operating rates in Northeast China rose. Hongzhan’s two plants—Jixian and Huanan—were in production but were shut down in mid-month. SDIC Tieling, Hailun, and Jidong units were operating; Wanli produced normally this month; Jilin Xintianlong operated normally; and Jilin Dongfeng Hualiang remained shut down. In Inner Mongolia, Zhalantun and Chifeng Ruiyang both resumed production. In East China, operating rates declined. Anhui COFCO operated steadily, with the Bengbu plant running normally; Anhui Wanshen produced normally; Huating resumed production after a brief shutdown. In the Mengzhou area of Henan, the Houyuan unit had a brief shutdown, other plants ran normally, and the Xinxiang unit resumed production. In Guangxi, operating rates were stable: Guangxi COFCO, Guangxi Jinyuan, and Guangxi Xintiande were producing normally. Among molasses ethanol producers, only Haiying was in operation; all others were shut down and sold from inventory. Coal-based ethanol operating rates rose slightly. Henan Ruibai was shut down, and Xinjiang Tianye was shut down in mid-month. Henan Liyuan, Hubei Jingmen Yuanhan, Hunan Petrochemical, Anhui Tanxin, and Shandong Hengxin units were operating normally.

Maintenance Loss Analysis

During the month, ethanol units with an annual processing capacity of 4.24 million tons were shut down. Hongzhan’s Jixian and Huanan plants in Heilongjiang had scheduled shutdowns in August. SDIC Tieling produced at the beginning of the month; Hailun was producing; Jidong produced normally; Wanli started feeding the unit on the 25th. Jilin Xintianlong was shut down at the beginning of the month and resumed production in mid-to-late month. Jilin Dongfeng Hualiang remained shut down. Inner Mongolia Zhalantun was shut down; Chifeng Ruiyang was shut down; Anhui COFCO’s fuel ethanol output declined, with one line in Suzhou and one in Bengbu shut down. Guannan Xinguan and Lianyungang Longhe units were shut down. Among the three plants in Henan, the Hanyong unit was briefly shut down, other units ran normally, and the Xinxiang unit was shut down. For coal-based ethanol, Yushen continued to run at low load; Jingmen Yuanhan, Baling Petrochemical, and Henan Ruibai units were in normal production; Anhui Tanxin resumed production after a one-week brief shutdown.

Table 6 Summary of Ethanol Unit Maintenance in August 2026 (Unit: 10,000 tons)

Producer Unit under Maintenance Capacity Start Date End Date
Anhui COFCO Fermentation ethanol 15.00 2026/5/18
Hongzhan Jixian Fermentation ethanol 60.00 2026/8/14
Hongzhan Huanan Fermentation ethanol 30.00 2026/8/17
Guannan Xinguan Fermentation ethanol 10.00 2025/10/20
Zhalantun Fermentation ethanol 15.00 2026/6/1 2026/8/14
Lianyungang Longhe Fermentation ethanol 10.00 2025/10/20
Dongfeng Hualiang Fermentation ethanol 10.00 2026/4/30
Chifeng Ruiyang Fermentation ethanol 8.00 2026/6/18 2026/8/15
Xinxiang Xinxing Bio Fermentation ethanol 8.00 2026/5/18 2026/8/7
Henan Houyuan Fermentation ethanol 50.00 2026/8/26 2026/8/27
Sichuan Hongzhan Fermentation ethanol 30.00 2026/6/15
Heilongjiang Shenglong Fermentation ethanol 50.00 2026/6/30 2026/9/1
Jilin Fukang Fermentation ethanol 50.00 2026/7/10 2026/8/8
Jilin Yushu Fermentation ethanol 17.00 2026/7/28 2026/8/20
Huating Fermentation ethanol 26.00 2026/7/25 2026/8/30
Xinjiang Tianye Coal-based ethanol 25.00 2026/8/15
Henan Ruibai Coal-based ethanol 25.00 2026/8/19
Huizhou Yuxin Coal-based ethanol 10.00 2026/7/3 2026/8/14
Total 449.00 -- --

Source: Chempricehub

Ethanol Monthly Supply-Demand Balance Sheet — Rolling Three Months (Unit: 10,000 tons)

Aug Sep E MoM Oct E Nov E
Beginning inventory 6.48 6.88 6.17% 5.85 11.58
Production 83.50 85.00 1.80% 88.00 88.00
Imports 0.36 0.37 2.78% 0.38 0.38
Total supply 90.34 92.25 2.11% 94.23 99.96
Downstream consumption 77.10 80.00 3.76% 82.00 85.00
Exports 6.36 6.40 0.63% 6.50 6.50
Total demand 83.46 86.40 3.52% 88.50 91.50
Supply-demand balance 6.88 5.85 -14.97% 5.73 8.46
Ending inventory 6.88 5.85 -14.97% 11.58 20.04

Source: Chempricehub. Note: ① Total supply = production + imports; total demand = downstream consumption (actual consumption in downstream markets) + exports; supply-demand balance = total supply - total demand.

The supply-demand balance remained positive in August and widened further from the previous month. The main reasons were that concentrated plant maintenance in the market had ended, supply increased in other regions, and the market remained oversupplied on the supply-demand front.

Comments

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  • Wei Zhang 2026-08-28 20:07
    August output rise and regional swings keep ethanol rangebound; capacity utilization shifts suggest limited upside, but downstream demand remains the key risk.
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