The supply-demand balance is on the verge of shifting, with the acetone market facing significant downward pressure from elevated levels.

【Lead-in】: The acetone market in November opened by continuing the strong momentum from late October, but the supply-demand landscape is brewing a shift. At the beginning of the month, major producers concentrated on raising posted prices; petrochemical enterprises raised prices by 600 RMB/ton to 9,600 RMB/ton in a single adjustment, causing spot markets to rise and peak at 9,350 RMB/ton. However, this rally driven by supply contraction is now facing declining costs combined with significant resistance from the demand side. The market softened from high levels to the range of 8,550–8,600 RMB/ton.

(1) Supply Side: Tightness Nearing an End

Table 1: Operational Status of Domestic Phenol/Acetone Units (Unit: 10,000 tons/year)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

In late October, Shandong Fuyu’s 250,000-ton/year unit shut down for maintenance, with a planned restart expected in late November. One of Lihua Yiweiyuan’s 350,000-ton/year phenol/acetone units was offline for maintenance from October 24 to November 5 and has since resumed normal operations. As of November 9, the domestic phenol/acetone capacity utilization rate increased to 81%. Chempricehub Information estimates that domestic acetone production in November will be 300,500 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.05%.

With the decline in the cost-side benzene market, losses for phenol/acetone producers have eased significantly. Whether operating rates for these units can increase further remains to be seen.

Regarding ports, inventory at Jiangyin dropped to 15,000 tons at one point in November, providing strong support for acetone prices due to low stock levels. As of November 19, Huaxi inventory stood at 14,000 tons, and Hengyang inventory was at 1,000 tons. Thai units were shut down for maintenance in November, resulting in no cargo arrivals in China. With limited subsequent vessel statistics, port inventories continue to draw down.

(2) Downstream Losses Constrain Absorption Capacity

Table 2: Weekly Theoretical Profit Changes in the Acetone Industry Chain (RMB/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

The four major downstream industries for acetone are universally trapped in profit difficulties. Production profits for Bisphenol A were -918 RMB/ton; profits for MMA via the ACH process turned negative at -949 RMB/ton; gross margin for isopropanol via the acetone method was -275 RMB/ton; and gross margin for MIBK production was -394 RMB/ton. Deep losses in downstream sectors directly suppress purchasing willingness and affect operating loads, with actual transactions dominated by small-volume essential demand. Downstream losses inhibit the sustained high pricing of acetone, lacking effective demand cooperation.

(3) Short-term Forecast

In November, the acetone market will shift from an upward trend driven by tight supply to a downward fluctuation pattern characterized by weakening costs and constrained demand. Incremental domestic supply is gradually materializing, while demand is restricted by losses limiting production starts, making it difficult for demand to expand. There is a risk of the price center shifting lower. Chempricehub Information forecasts that mainstream prices in East China will operate within the range of 8,400–8,700 RMB/ton. If phenol/acetone producers accelerate restarts or if raw material benzene continues to weaken, touching the lower end of the forecast range cannot be ruled out.