Lead-in: Domestic prices accelerated following the National Day holiday. As of October 10, the Chempricehub index for 98% sulfuric acid stood at RMB 1,305/ton, representing a month-on-month increase of 4.82%. However, regional trends diverged significantly. In Shandong, North China, and Northeast China, prices fell noticeably post-holiday due to relatively high pre-holiday levels and inflows of low-priced acid from other regions. Conversely, in Central China, most of East China, and South China, multiple regions raised prices after the holiday, driven by significant inventory reductions prior to the break.
1. Market Review
Post-holiday, the domestic sulfuric acid market exhibited clear regional divergence, primarily influenced by combined factors of localized supply contraction and varying demand patterns across regions. On the supply side, earlier price declines pushed several regions into lower price ranges, and some producers achieved satisfactory sales volumes during the holiday, leading to partial inventory digestion. After the holiday, maintenance shutdowns at facilities in Anhui, Henan, Guangxi, Shandong, and other areas reduced local supply. This positive supply-side development prompted price increases of RMB 100–250/ton in Central, East, and South China this week. On the demand side, fertilizer demand remained sluggish. Sulfuric acid markets in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia entered their beginning-of-month pricing adjustment phase; with limited supply contraction, the supply-demand imbalance persisted, causing major producers to cut prices by RMB 200–400/ton. The tug-of-war between supply-side positives and demand-side negatives resulted in regionally differentiated transaction centers.
2. Data Analysis
Post-holiday, domestic sulfuric acid capacity utilization stood at 64.39%, down 0.29 percentage points month-on-month and 1.00 percentage point year-on-year. No new production restarts were reported this week. Capacity utilization declined in specific regions as key plants in western Shandong, ore-based acid plants in northern Anhui, select ore-based acid plants in Jiangxi, and major ore-based acid plants in Jilin (Northeast China) entered maintenance periods, significantly reducing local supply. Notably, after prices fell to low levels in many regions previously, strong sales performance during the holiday helped digest inventories, providing fundamental support for post-holiday price hikes. Prior to the holiday, sulfuric acid prices dropped to lows in most domestic regions, prompting increased new orders from some plants and boosting sales enthusiasm. Looking ahead, planned maintenance at some units of major acid producers in Guangxi, acid plants in eastern Shandong, select units at major producers in Anhui, and smelting acid plants in Liangshan, Sichuan, suggests that national capacity utilization may decline further. With concentrated maintenance cycles expected in October and November, supply conditions may tighten temporarily.
In the first week post-holiday, fertilizer demand remained persistently weak. Capacity utilization in the monoammonium phosphate (MAP) sector was 45.94%, down 0.45 percentage points from the previous week; diammonium phosphate (DAP) utilization was 41.85%, down 0.55 percentage points. Frequent appearances of low-end supply sources meant downstream compound fertilizer enterprises maintained only essential small-order replenishment, exhibiting strong price resistance and providing minimal pull on sulfuric acid procurement. Traditional fertilizer industries are deeply entrenched in losses, with companies generally adopting a "buy-as-needed" strategy and showing strong resistance to high-priced sulfuric acid. Demand showed structural differentiation between chemical and new energy sectors. Contrasting with the weak fertilizer segment, the chemical industry performed relatively positively. Titanium dioxide capacity utilization reached 73.49%, up 0.11 percentage points; caprolactam utilization hit 71.87%, up 0.23 percentage points. The new energy sector emerged as the core highlight on the demand side: iron phosphate capacity utilization remained high at 87.91%, while lithium iron phosphate utilization stood at 85.69%. Strong new energy demand supported high prices for sulfur-based and ore-based acids in regions like Sichuan and Chongqing, providing critical stability for overall sulfuric acid demand.
3. Post-Holiday Trend Outlook
In the short term, the domestic sulfuric acid market will maintain its regional divergence. Positive factors include localized maintenance and inventory digestion supporting prices in Central, East, and South China, alongside growing market expectations of supply tightening. However, sustained broad-based demand recovery remains elusive, and the seasonal off-peak period for fertilizer demand has not ended. Negative factors include continued pressure on prices in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia due to weak demand and limited supply contraction. Large regional price disparities facilitate cross-regional flows of low-priced acid. Previously, inflows from regions like Inner Mongolia and Hebei pressured markets in Liaoning and Jilin. Moving forward, if supply tightens in Shandong or Anhui, low-priced acid from these regions could flow into neighboring provinces such as Henan, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang, potentially suppressing local price hikes. Overall, the market is expected to remain volatile with distinct regional characteristics.
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