Lead: Recently, the domestic DBP market price has been driven by a sharp rise in raw material prices, leading to persistently high costs. This has supported another wave of price increases in the DBP market, even during the downstream off-season. However, the overall recovery of downstream demand remains less than optimistic, limiting the upside potential for DBP prices.
| Figure 1: 2025–2026 Domestic DBP Price Trend (yuan/ton) | Figure 2: 2025–2026 Domestic DBP Regional Price Trend (yuan/ton) |
|---|---|
| Source: Chempricehub | Source: Chempricehub |
Recently, the average price of the domestic DBP market has edged up. It is understood that this increase is mainly due to the upward trend of both raw materials, with a relatively large increase, causing DBP costs to rise too quickly. The sustained cost pressure has provided strong support for DBP prices. At the same time, end-user downstream performance has not been optimistic, as the downstream sector is in the off-season with relatively low operating rates, resulting in low rigid demand for DBP. Consequently, market inquiries and purchasing willingness were not high. When both raw materials for DBP rose simultaneously, some downstream buyers showed increased willingness to purchase at low prices, leading to a brief period of concentrated order-taking in the market, mainly at low prices.
Table 1: Domestic DBP Industry Chain Price Summary (unit: yuan/ton)
| Product | Market | 2026/7/6 | 2026/7/17 | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DBP | Shandong | 7850 | 8450 | +600 | +7.64% |
| Henan | 7600 | 8400 | +800 | +10.53% | |
| North China | 7650 | 8450 | +800 | +10.46% | |
| South China | 7950 | 8650 | +700 | +8.81% | |
| Key Upstream | |||||
| n-Butanol | Shandong | 5835 | 6800 | +965 | +16.54% |
| Naphthalene-based Phthalic Anhydride | Hebei | 6900 | 8000 | +1100 | +15.94% |
Source: Chempricehub
| Figure 3: DBP Raw Material & Cost/Profit Comparison (yuan/ton) |
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| Source: Chempricehub |
Recently, the rise in domestic DBP market prices is mainly attributed to the continuous growth of its two raw materials: n-butanol and phthalic anhydride. First, n-butanol: after geopolitical tensions escalated again, international crude oil drove propylene (the raw material for n-butanol) to rise sharply and continuously. Due to increased cost pressure, n-butanol remained in a loss state, prompting producers to raise market prices. Second, phthalic anhydride: after earlier price declines, coupled with increased maintenance shutdowns in the phthalic anhydride industry, domestic capacity utilization dropped to low levels. The industry has been continuously destocking, and downstream inventory was mostly exhausted. Amid renewed US-Iran conflict, crude oil boosted futures prices of bulk commodities, creating a strong speculative atmosphere. With low phthalic anhydride inventories in the domestic industry and the expectation of cost-driven price increases, the domestic phthalic anhydride market entered an accelerated upward trend. The consecutive and significant increases in both raw materials resulted in high costs, strengthening support for DBP prices and compressing DBP profits, which in turn supported the continuous rise in market prices.
Table 2: DBP Cost and Profit Comparison (unit: yuan/ton)
| Item | 2026/7/6 | 2026/7/17 | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shandong Cost | 7415 | 8335 | +920 | +12.41% |
| Shandong Profit | 435 | -85 | -520 | -119.54% |
| Figure 5: 2025–2026 Domestic DBP Daily Operating Rate Comparison |
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| Source: Chempricehub |
End-user downstream remains in the off-season, with lackluster demand for DBP and mostly low rigid-demand procurement. Coupled with the rise in raw material prices, the high cost pressure has intensified, and DBP profits have fallen into losses. Consequently, production plants have reduced operating rates or increased maintenance shutdowns. Meanwhile, some previously idled units have gradually resumed operation. As of July 16, domestic daily DBP output dropped to approximately 1,290 tons/day, with a daily operating rate of around 47.56%. Although there was a slight increase, it was insignificant.
Cost side: First, for n-butanol, the impact of high costs and low profits is expected to intensify, with some planned maintenance shutdowns imminent, which will support market prices. Second, for domestic phthalic anhydride, tight supply in the market and concentrated restocking purchases are exacerbating the oversupply situation, and prices are expected to continue to rise further.
Supply and demand side: On the demand side, the overall end-market performance is mediocre, still in the off-season. It is expected to remain mainly rigid-demand driven, with insufficient overall support.
Overall assessment: With increased support from raw materials but subdued downstream demand, DBP operating rates will remain low. Factories will stick to stable low-price sales and focus on destocking. The domestic DBP market is expected to operate with fluctuations.
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