Lead: Recently, DBP market prices have been slowly rising under multiple supports: cost push, limited supply, and growing demand.
The domestic DBP market price level continued to move higher. As of September 4, the price in Henan reached 9,300 CNY/ton, up 450 CNY/ton, or 5.08%, from August 31. Recently, due to the U.S. military strike on Iran and the sudden escalation of Middle East geopolitical conflicts, international crude oil prices surged. This drove up DBP’s two raw material prices in succession, creating high-cost support for DBP. It also boosted downstream buyers’ willingness to purchase at lower price levels, improving market transaction sentiment and pushing trading volumes steadily higher. After DBP plants achieved smooth shipments, inventories fell. Combined with low operating rates, overall supply shrank. Under the combined effect of higher costs, recovering demand, and tighter supply, DBP market prices entered a continuous upward trend, and spot prices moved steadily higher.
Table 1 Domestic DBP Industrial Chain Price Summary (Unit: CNY/ton)
| Market | 2026/8/31 | 2026/9/4 | Change | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shandong | 9050 | 9350 | +300 | +3.31% |
| Henan | 8850 | 9300 | +450 | +5.08% |
| South China | 9200 | 9400 | +200 | +2.17% |
DBP costs have increased rapidly recently. The main factor was the notable rise in n-butanol market prices. Largely due to the strong uptrend in international crude oil, propylene prices surged, adding cost pressure to n-butanol. Meanwhile, domestic n-butanol plants were undergoing concentrated maintenance, resulting in tight supply. These two factors strongly supported the significant rise in n-butanol prices. In the phthalic anhydride (PA) market, the persistently wide price spread between o-xylene-based PA and naphthalene-based PA led some downstream users to substitute naphthalene-based product for o-xylene-based product. With domestic naphthalene-based PA producers generally oversold, naphthalene-based PA prices continued to climb.
Driven by the simultaneous rise of both raw materials, DBP costs kept increasing while profits narrowed, pushing DBP margins into a loss-making phase and heightening cost pressure. As of September 4, the DBP cost in Shandong was around 9,497 CNY/ton, with profit at -147 CNY/ton.
Table 2 DBP Cost-Profit Comparison (Unit: CNY/ton)
| Item | 2026/8/31 | 2026/9/4 | Change | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shandong n-butanol | 7425 | 8160 | +735 | +9.90% |
| Hebei naphthalene-based PA | 8300 | 8400 | +100 | +1.20% |
| Shandong cost | 9039 | 9497 | +458 | +5.07% |
| Shandong profit | 11 | -147 | -158 | -143.64% |
Cost side: For n-butanol, supply is expected to recover slowly in the coming period, but costs will remain high, so n-butanol prices are likely to consolidate at elevated levels. Similarly, in the naphthalene-based PA market, feedstock prices remain high, providing cost-side support for prices to stay at high levels. Both raw materials are expected to remain high, so DBP will continue to face substantial cost pressure that will be difficult to relieve in the short term, providing relatively strong support for DBP prices.
Supply-demand side: Downstream end-user orders remain unsatisfactory. Due to significant cost pressure, downstream buyers continue to resist high-priced DBP. Demand and procurement are mainly restricted to essential needs, and market participants are cautious, offering weak support for DBP prices in the coming period.
Overall, strong cost-side support is expected to persist, while the demand side will remain weak and downstream resistance is likely to grow. Downstream buying will likely continue on a need-only basis, with cautious market operations and little willingness to build large inventories proactively. Market inquiries and transactions are expected to stay generally subdued. The domestic DBP market is expected to enter a phase of choppy consolidation.
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