The market maintains consolidation at elevated levels, with a limited trading range (September 2026).

1. Market Analysis for the Month

This period, the fluorite market maintained a high-level consolidation with limited upside potential. In September, sentiment in the 97% fluorite concentrate market remained relatively firm, though industry participants held divergent views. There was a slight divergence in market atmosphere between northern and southern regions, accompanied by differing trader sentiments.

In the northern market, inflows of external supplies helped stabilize trader psychology. However, negative factors continued to be transmitted from end-users, and downstream buyers offered limited room for price increases. Consequently, most holders preferred to sell at current highs to secure profits. Conversely, transactions in the southern market were primarily executed at higher prices. The pricing of hydrogen fluoride continued to rise, with suppliers coordinating to maintain firm high-price quotations. Strong demand from downstream sectors for high-quality fluorite left little room for negotiation. Although some supply-side facilities resumed operations, and supplies from northern or northwestern regions penetrated the market, these deliveries have longer lead times and cannot adequately meet immediate local demand.

2. Analysis of Market Influencing Factors

1. Mining enterprises and beneficiation plants are undergoing safety inspections, leading to contracted supply and intensified bargaining between suppliers and buyers.
2. Downstream industries continue to raise their product prices, while operating rates for anhydrous hydrofluoric acid show regional divergence between northern and southern China.

3. Next Month’s Market Forecast

The fluorite price index for October is projected to decline to 3,650 RMB/ton, representing a month-on-month decrease of 90 RMB/ton (-2.41%), indicating a downward shift in the trading range. The fluorite market is expected to trend weakly downwards in the coming period.

Downstream refrigerant inventories remain elevated. Refrigerant operating rates in October and November are forecast to drop by 50–70%, significantly reducing consumption of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid. This will subsequently compress the absorption capacity for fluorite. However, stockpiling demand for fluorite provides support at lower levels, suggesting that deep price declines are unlikely.