The market continued its strong rally, with futures hitting the limit-up again in the afternoon! (2026-09-08)

1. Today's Focus Points

① Yulin Yankuang's methanol auction started at 3,050 yuan/ton today, with a volume of 8,000 tons, and all lots were transacted at 3,070–3,080 yuan/ton.

② Inner Mongolia Chifeng Boyuan's 150,000-ton/year natural-gas-based methanol unit was taken off-line for maintenance today (September 7). The turnaround is expected to take about 20 days, and the plant will not ship product during this period.

2. Today's Market and Outlook

Table 1 Domestic Methanol and Related Product Prices (Unit: yuan/ton)

Data source: Chempricehub

[Today's Review] Today, the methanol spot price index stood at 3,389.64, up 181.07. Among them, Taicang spot prices were 3,503, up 140, and the Inner Mongolia North Line price was 3,290, up 165. According to Chempricehub monitoring of 20 large and medium-sized cities, 19 cities saw increases of varying degrees, with gains ranging from 100 to 400 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol market continued its strong upward rally today, with futures hitting the daily limit again in the afternoon. Against the backdrop of tight spot supply at ports and in inland markets, coupled with downstream pre-holiday rigid demand stocking ahead of the two festivals, overall buying and selling sentiment was robust. Intraday gains in most markets exceeded 100 yuan/ton, with regional increases in Xinjiang particularly pronounced. In the short term, given the still-fair supply-demand situation, the market is expected to remain elevated and strong; attention should be paid to freight changes and futures volatility.

3. Basis

In the afternoon, methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange hit the daily limit up. The MA2610 contract opened at 3,217 yuan/ton, reached a high of 3,359 yuan/ton and a low of 3,189 yuan/ton, and closed at 3,359 yuan/ton, up 191 yuan/ton from the previous settlement price. As of market close, open interest for the MA2609 contract stood at 727,100 lots, up 106,400 lots from the previous trading day.

4. Production Updates

Table 2 Methanol and Downstream Production Updates

Data source: Chempricehub

5. Price Forecast

6. Today, the domestic methanol market continued its strong rally, and futures hit the daily limit again in the afternoon. With supply tight at both ports and inland markets, and downstream rigid demand stockpiling ahead of the two festivals providing support, overall trading sentiment was strong. Intraday gains in most markets exceeded 100 yuan/ton, with more pronounced increases in parts of Xinjiang. In the short term, as supply and demand remain acceptable, the market is expected to keep running at elevated levels with a firm tone; watch freight changes and futures fluctuations.

7. In the medium-to-long term, imported methanol has remained persistently low. With downstream demand recovering and domestic methanol producers continuing maintenance through late September, supply expectations are likely to tighten gradually, pushing inland methanol prices to fresh highs.

8. Market Sentiment

Table 3 Sentiment Expectations of Domestic Methanol Upstream and Downstream Players

Data source: Chempricehub

7. Related Product Developments

Glacial acetic acid: Today, glacial acetic acid prices continued to rise in some regions, with trading activity differing across regions. In Shandong and North China, arrival costs from other regions ticked up, supporting narrow price gains; in East and South China, some traders locked in profits while downstream players remained wait-and-see. Chempricehub expects the glacial acetic acid market to remain broadly stable in the short term.

Formaldehyde: Today, the formaldehyde market moved upward. Raw material methanol surged, sharply raising costs, and formaldehyde plants in Guangxi, Anhui, Henan and other regions lowered operating loads under cost pressure. The domestic market showed strong follow-on gains, but limited by weaker operating rates at downstream wood-based panel plants, gains were capped. Chempricehub expects formaldehyde prices to continue rising in the short term.

DME: Today, the DME market held steady. Raw material methanol rose sharply, increasing cost pressure on DME, and market participants displayed bullish sentiment. However, transactions remained at stable prices, with active trading entry and end users sticking to essential procurement. Chempricehub expects the DME market to run with a firm tone in the short term.

8. Data Calendar

Table 4 Domestic Methanol Data Schedule (Unit: 10,000 tons)

Data source: Chempricehub

Notes:

1. ↓↑ denotes significant fluctuations, highlighting data dimensions with increases/decreases exceeding 3%.
2. ↗↘ denotes narrow fluctuations, highlighting data with changes within 0–3%.