Lead: In mid-August, the average domestic price of sulfuric acid stood at 1,738 yuan/ton, down 1.54% from the beginning of the month. Downstream end-users are currently in the traditional seasonal off-season for demand, and the market atmosphere is dominated by price-pressuring sentiment, with the transaction focus shifting lower. The overall industry continues to face sustained downward pressure. At the same time, multiple factors—uneven regional resumption on the supply side, divergent trends between the fertilizer and chemical sectors on the demand side, and high-level sulfur cost support—are intertwined, plunging the sulfuric acid market into a deeply divergent tug-of-war.
1. Price Trends: More Regional Declines Than Gains, with Notable Divergence
Table 1 Overview of Domestic Sulfuric Acid Prices (Unit: yuan/ton)
| Market | Specification | Week 2 of August | Week 1 of August | Change | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shandong | 98% sulfur-burning acid | 3000-3000 | 3000-3000 | 0/0 | 0.00%/0.00% |
| Jiangsu | 98% sulfur-burning acid | 2100-2200 | 2100-2200 | 0/0 | 0.00%/0.00% |
| Zhejiang | 98% sulfur-burning acid | 2500-2900 | 2500-2900 | 0/0 | 0.00%/0.00% |
| Anhui | 98% sulfur-burning acid | 2300-2500 | 2300-2500 | 0/0 | 0.00%/0.00% |
| Hebei | 98% sulfur-burning acid | 2250-2400 | 2250-2500 | 0/-100 | 0.00%/-4.00% |
| Anhui | 98% smelter acid | 1620-1650 | 1810-1840 | -190/-190 | -10.50%/-10.33% |
| Shandong | 98% smelter acid | 1300-1680 | 1500-1720 | -200/-40 | -13.33%/-2.33% |
| Hunan | 98% smelter acid | 1550-1650 | 1630-1730 | -80/-80 | -4.91%/-4.62% |
| Jiangxi | 98% smelter acid | 1620-1660 | 1620-1660 | 0/0 | 0.00%/0.00% |
| Henan | 98% smelter acid | 1361-1650 | 1480-1730 | -119/-80 | -8.04%/-4.62% |
| Hubei | 98% smelter acid | 1600-1750 | 1650-1750 | -50/0 | -3.03%/0.00% |
| Guangxi | 98% smelter acid | 1650-1800 | 1650-1800 | 0/0 | 0.00%/0.00% |
| Guizhou | 98% smelter acid | 1700-1800 | 1750-1850 | -50/-50 | -2.86%/-2.70% |
| Sichuan | 98% smelter acid | 1800-2000 | 1900-2150 | -100/-150 | -5.26%/-6.98% |
| Yunnan | 98% smelter acid | 1380-1440 | 1380-1440 | 0/0 | 0.00%/0.00% |
| Fujian | 98% smelter acid | 1800-1940 | 1770-1940 | 30/0 | 1.69%/0.00% |
| Inner Mongolia | 98% smelter acid | 1470-1830 | 1470-1830 | 0/0 | 0.00%/0.00% |
| Liaoning | 98% smelter acid | 1650-1850 | 1650-1850 | 0/0 | 0.00%/0.00% |
| Gansu | 98% smelter acid | 1700-1910 | 1700-1910 | 0/0 | 0.00%/0.00% |
| Shandong | 98% pyrite-based acid | 1600-1650 | 1650-1720 | -50/-70 | -3.03%/-4.07% |
| Guangdong | 98% pyrite-based acid | 1750-1800 | 1780-1830 | -30/-30 | -1.69%/-1.64% |
| Hebei | 98% pyrite-based acid | 1750-1850 | 1750-1850 | 0/0 | 0.00%/0.00% |
Data source: Chempricehub
This week, the domestic sulfuric acid market exhibited a clear pattern of regional divergence. Acid prices in many regions continued to adjust downward, with Shandong, Hunan, Henan, Anhui, and Zhejiang all seeing successive declines, with reductions concentrated in the range of 70–190 yuan/ton. Some acid producers faced growing shipment pressure, inventories gradually accumulated, and the room for negotiation on new orders continued to widen.
By region: East China remained under pressure overall. The Shandong sulfuric acid market continued its weak performance, with acid producers showing a strong willingness to sacrifice margins in order to clear inventories, and the actual transaction focus kept shifting lower. Although the major pyrite-based acid producer was shut down for maintenance, the incremental supply from the earlier concentrated resumption of smelter acid units had fully filled the maintenance gap, leaving overall supply ample. In the Anhui market, a major acid plant cut its quotation by 190 yuan/ton to 1,620–1,650 yuan/ton. In the Zhejiang market, prices were lowered by 70–90 yuan/ton due to declines in surrounding markets and its own relatively high quotation levels. In Central China, the transaction focus continued to move downward. The Hubei market saw receiving prices decline, dragged down by sharply lower tender prices from medium-sized acid plants in Henan. The Hunan market followed the 80 yuan/ton cut in surrounding markets, but the market response was muted. In the Sanmenxia area of Henan, some acid producers substantially cut their tender quotations, and transaction prices fell noticeably. Southwest China showed divergent performance. After several consecutive rounds of downward adjustments, acid prices in the Yunnan market had fallen to a relatively low level domestically, with the price advantage gradually emerging and attracting renewed purchasing interest from outside regions. Supply in the Sichuan market was becoming looser, and the transaction focus was expected to continue edging down slightly. South China saw localized declines, while the Fujian market, supported by relatively low inventories, saw its major acid producer nudge prices up slightly by 30 yuan/ton. Northwest and Northeast China were broadly stable, with the pattern of weak supply and weak demand continuing.
2. Supply Side: Capacity Utilization Lingering at Low Levels, with Uneven Regional Resumption
The national sulfuric acid capacity utilization rate stood at 63.16% this week, a marginal increase of 0.03 percentage points from the previous period. Although the operating rate edged up period-over-period, it was still down 3.77 percentage points year-on-year, remaining at a relatively low level in historical terms.
The supply side showed a structural feature of "resumptions intertwined with maintenance." On the upside, in the Chifeng area of Inner Mongolia, the major smelter acid producer restarted its units; in Hubei, the leading acid plant gradually restored units that had been under maintenance; and in Zhejiang, a few sulfur-burning acid producers resumed output—together driving the operating rate higher. On the downside, in the Luzhong area of Shandong, the major pyrite-based acid producer entered its maintenance period, while in the Luxi area, sulfur-burning acid units also entered maintenance.
In terms of unit dynamics, newly added maintenance units this week included Jiangsu Sopo's 600,000-ton/year sulfur-burning acid unit (shut down on August 6, with maintenance planned for 12 days) and Liaoning Dashiqiao Shengma's 100,000-ton/year smelter acid unit (shut down on August 1, with maintenance planned for one month), among others. Meanwhile, among units previously under maintenance, Shandong Lianmeng's 150,000-ton/year pyrite-based acid unit was scheduled to restart on August 10, and Hubei Hongsheng Copper's 1.5-million-ton/year smelter acid unit was scheduled to resume on August 11. Overall, the pace of supply resumption varies by region. Hubei, East China, and other areas face incremental supply pressure, while Inner Mongolia, Gansu, and other regions, constrained by feedstock and operating limitations, have relatively limited supply release. Next week, the national sulfuric acid capacity utilization rate is expected to fluctuate only marginally from this week, remaining broadly stable.
3. Demand Side: Fertilizer Divergence Intensifies, Chemical Sector Remains Weak
Table 2 Capacity Utilization of Domestic Sulfuric Acid and Major Downstream Sectors
| Product | Week 2 of August | Week 1 of August | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sulfuric acid | 63.16% | 63.13% | 0.03% |
| Monoammonium phosphate | 55.55% | 56.48% | -0.93% |
| Diammonium phosphate | 41.48% | 38.72% | 2.76% |
| Caprolactam | 68.44% | 68.21% | 0.23% |
| Titanium dioxide | 71.99% | 72.34% | -0.35% |
| Wet-process phosphoric acid | 44.51% | 44.19% | 0.32% |
| Iron phosphate | 87.25% | 85.89% | 1.36% |
| Lithium iron phosphate | 87.54% | 86.80% | 0.74% |
Data source: Chempricehub
The demand side exhibited a structural pattern of "divergence in fertilizers, weakness in chemicals." Divergence within the fertilizer sector intensified. Monoammonium phosphate (MAP) capacity utilization stood at 55.55% this period, down 0.93 percentage points from the previous period, with output of 223,300 tons, a decrease of 3,800 tons from last week. In Hubei, the mainstream ex-factory quotation for 55% powder was around 4,380 yuan/ton. The overall offtake pace for autumn fertilizer remained slow, and compound fertilizer producers continued to face pressure from finished-goods inventories, further dampening their willingness to replenish raw materials. Diammonium phosphate (DAP) capacity utilization stood at 41.48% this period, up 2.76 percentage points from the previous period, with output of 201,600 tons, an increase of 13,400 tons. Despite the rebound in operating rates, downstream purchasing enthusiasm did not improve noticeably, demand-side follow-through remained weak, and the actual transaction focus of the market slowly shifted lower.
The chemical sector remained sluggish. Titanium dioxide capacity utilization was 71.99% this period, down 0.35 percentage points from the previous period; most units that had been under maintenance had yet to resume, and the market continued weak consolidation. Caprolactam capacity utilization was 68.44% this period, up 0.29 percentage points from the previous period. Downstream wet-process phosphoric acid capacity utilization was 44.51% this cycle, a marginal rise of 0.32 percentage points from the previous cycle, maintaining low-level operation. The new energy sector was one of the few bright spots on the demand side. Iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate continued to run at high operating rates, with major producers maintaining full-load operation.
4. Short-Term Outlook: Local Fluctuations amid Stalemate, Overall Weak Performance
Overall, the domestic sulfuric acid market is expected to continue its regional divergence pattern next week, with a broadly stalemated tone. On the supply side, the overall national operating load is expected to recover modestly next week, with previously maintained units gradually returning to full operation, though the pace of supply recovery will vary by region. On the demand side, although the phosphate fertilizer market remains cautious, operating rates are expected to tick up slightly. Chemical downstream sectors are showing divergence: the new energy segment has reasonably firm demand, while traditional chemical sectors remain relatively weak. On the cost side, sulfur prices are maintaining high-level fluctuations with tight spot availability, providing strong support to the sulfuric acid cost structure. In terms of regional price spreads, a clear price gradient has already formed due to differing supply-demand conditions across regions. The market is expected to continue operating in a differentiated manner: regions with previously high prices are likely to see further downward exploration, pressured by inflows of low-priced supply and increased local shipment pressure, while regions with previously low acid prices are expected to remain largely stable, underpinned by cost support and rigid demand.
In summary, the domestic sulfuric acid market next week will see localized fluctuations amid a broader stalemate, with price adjustment directions varying by region and the overall price center still having limited room to edge lower. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the pace of supply-demand recovery in each region and the flow of external resources.
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