Terminal buyers’ willingness to take delivery remains weak, leaving room for further declines in LNG market prices.

1. Today's Summary

2. Wen23 Gas Storage Facility, the largest underground natural gas storage facility in central and eastern China, has completed 108.37% of its annual injection plan, exceeding targets ahead of schedule. Liuzhuang Gas Storage Facility, the first depleted oil and gas reservoir-type storage facility in the Yangtze River Delta region, has completed its annual injection task, with cumulative injection volumes reaching a historic high. Jintan Salt Cavern Gas Storage Facility, China’s first salt cavern-based storage facility, is fully leveraging the flexible injection and withdrawal advantages of salt cavern storage to continuously enhance emergency peak-shaving capabilities.

3. Qatar Becomes Largest Buyer of U.S. LNG Amid Hormuz Crisis: On November 4, Qatar Energy signed long-term LNG purchase agreements totaling 7 million tons per year with Cheniere and Woodside, positioning itself as the largest buyer of U.S. LNG. The Iran war destroyed 17% of Qatar’s export capacity, resulting in an annual loss of approximately $20 billion, while transportation through the Strait of Hormuz remains largely disrupted; force majeure declarations have been extended until the end of December. Saad Al-Kaabi, CEO of Qatar Energy, stated that LNG cannot be transported via pipelines on a large scale like crude oil, making redundant infrastructure economically unviable. To hedge risks, Qatar is shifting toward U.S. supply: signing an agreement with Cheniere for up to 4 million tons per year, with deliveries starting in 2031 and lasting until 2054; and signing an agreement with Woodside for 3 million tons per year, with a 20-year term starting in 2030. Kaabi noted that this will consolidate Qatar’s industry leadership position and support its diversification strategy.

Table 1: Domestic LNG Price Summary (Unit: RMB/ton)

Market Prices: Today’s national LNG delivery price was 7,856 RMB/ton, down 54 RMB/ton from the previous business day. Today’s imported resource price was 7,548 RMB/ton, down 38 RMB/ton from the previous business day.

Domestic Supply: Most plants are maintaining stable prices and focusing on shipments. Currently, Shanxi offers significant price advantages, opening up arbitrage opportunities for long-distance transportation. Some plants have reduced inventory to low levels, but those with smaller tank capacities still face strong pressure to clear inventories.

Imported Gas: Resources at coastal receiving terminals are tight. Coupled with the primary focus on increasing inventories before the heating season, sales enthusiasm remains weak, and external shipment prices continue to stay at high levels.

3. Production Dynamics

Imports: On November 5, LNG receiving terminal truck loading volumes totaled 23,825 tons, a decrease of 0.62% compared to the previous period. Shipments from North China were 4,053 tons, an increase of 2.66%; South China shipments were 7,014 tons, a decrease of 0.60%; East China shipments were 11,844 tons, an increase of 0.89%.

Domestic Production: No plant startups or shutdowns were reported today.

Profitability: Taking Inner Mongolia as an example, the average theoretical profit for sampled plants in Inner Mongolia was -169.17 RMB/ton, a decrease of 105 RMB/ton from the previous business day.

4. Price Forecast