Supply-Side Support Keeps Prices Elevated; Weak Demand and Low-Price Pressure Drive Down Prices (Nov. 6–12, 2026)

1. Key Market Focus This Week

1. Production: During the week, propylene glycol (PG) units at Lihua Yiweiyuan and Qingdao Alkali Industry shut down sequentially, while Deppu Phase II reduced operating rates. Most other units maintained previous load levels, resulting in a significant decline in overall utilization rates.

2. Demand: The UPR industry’s weekly operating rate was 33%, with overall capacity utilization continuing to decrease month-on-month. Domestic unsaturated polyester resin (UPR) producers’ operating loads generally remained stable but slightly declined this week. Many resin units in Hebei Province shut down, and some production lines reduced loads, dragging down industry-wide operating levels and reducing output compared to the previous week.

3. Cost: During this period, the comprehensive gross profit for domestic PG and dimethyl carbonate (DMC) produced via the PO transesterification method stood at RMB 48/ton, representing a month-on-month increase of +115.74%. Profitability recovered from the previous week, shifting from losses to profits.

2. Weekly Market Analysis

Table 1: Weekly Price Change Table for Domestic Propylene Glycol (Unit: RMB/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub

Propylene glycol prices rose initially then fell this week. In the latter part of last week, supported by cost factors and favorable supply conditions, PG producers showed strong intent to raise prices and actively increased ex-factory prices, pushing transaction prices to relatively high levels. Early this week, despite inventory clearance and order fulfillment by manufacturers keeping prices firm, weak demand follow-through and insufficient support from foreign trade orders weighed on the market. Additionally, as producers corrected their loss positions, low-price offers emerged frequently, causing prices to come under pressure and decline.

3. Analysis of Market Influencing Factors

1. As of the closing price on November 12, the weekly average comprehensive gross profit for domestic PG and DMC produced via the PO transesterification method was RMB 48/ton, up +115.90% month-on-month.

2. In the latter part of last week, buying interest improved at lower price levels. Coupled with significant production losses for new batches and sentiment boosted by an unplanned temporary shutdown of Lihua Yiweiyuan’s propylene unit, PG producers demonstrated strong intent to push prices higher, actively raising ex-factory prices and rapidly driving prices to peak levels. The market opened this week at these highs; however, domestic demand remained weak, and export orders were constrained by high ocean freight costs, leading to poor acceptance of high-priced PG. Trading activity for new contracts was subdued. Nevertheless, short-term selling pressure was limited due to inventory clearance and backlog fulfillment by producers, resulting in price consolidation at high levels early in the week. Subsequently, as the primary raw material, propylene oxide (PO), saw price declines, PG producers’ profitability shifted from loss to gain. Low-price supplies appeared in South and East China, and Baijiarui released additional volumes externally. These bearish factors temporarily outweighed bullish supply supports, causing PG prices to face downward pressure and decline mid-week.

4. Next Week Market Forecast

Looking ahead, PG prices are expected to fall first and then stabilize next week. Short-term cost support is currently lacking, and abundant low-price supplies will drag the market center lower. Once prices drop near customers' psychological expectations and cost support strengthens, PG prices may stabilize. Close attention should be paid to raw material support.

Specifically, regarding the cost side, propylene is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, while liquid chlorine prices are likely to remain stable or rise slightly, maintaining current cost support. On the supply side, Sanyue and Hangjin may slightly increase operating rates, while Qixiang, Lihua Yiweiyuan, and Binhua are expected to continue reducing loads. Yida will operate stably, Guoen may produce small quantities, and Zhejiang Petrochemical will undergo maintenance shutdowns. After offsetting these changes, total supply will remain roughly flat, though cost pressures could cause short-term reductions in volume, which warrants monitoring. Downstream demand is expected to remain cautious, with buyers waiting for a staged low point before making minor purchases. Currently, the market lacks clear bullish drivers and is likely to maintain a weak trend. If raw materials continue to probe lower, PG prices may follow with narrow fluctuations before consolidating.

Regarding supply, Lihua Yiweiyuan may remain shut down next week, keeping overall utilization rates low. However, external releases of PG from Shaanxi-based plants will partially supplement market supply.

On the demand side, domestic UPR prices are expected to decline slightly within a narrow range next week. Current cost support is weak, leaving room for modest spot price decreases, though the magnitude may be limited. Specifically: 1. Supply side. Overall operating rates for UPR producers are expected to rise slightly. Shutdown units in Hebei plan to restart sequentially, boosting industry utilization margins. 2. Demand side. Current price reductions in resin are limited, fostering strong wait-and-see sentiment among downstream users. Since resin price drops have not met market expectations, downstream players remain hesitant. Combined with high costs for downstream industries and persistently weakening end-user demand, associated orders continue to shrink, preventing genuine rigid demand from being released and hindering any significant improvement in procurement pace. Regarding costs, raw material trends are diverging; styrene is likely to fluctuate with a stronger bias, while other inputs continue to drift lower, further weakening overall cost support for resins.