Supply and Demand Remain Relatively Balanced, Ethylene Oxide Prices Hold Firm (2026-09-09)

1. Today's Summary

1. Sept 8: Houthi militants attacked Saudi oil facilities, and the US-Iran military conflict continued, with supply risks pushing international oil prices higher. NYMEX crude oil October futures rose USD 1.55/bbl to USD 93.03, up 1.69% from the previous session; ICE Brent November futures rose USD 0.92/bbl to USD 97.92, up 0.95%. China INE crude oil 2610 contract rose 14.8 to CNY 703.3/bbl, and rose 11.4 to CNY 714.7/bbl in night trading.

2. Sept 8: The USD market price for port ethylene, CFR Northeast Asia, was USD 1,150/ton, up USD 45/ton from the previous working day.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1 Domestic Ethylene Oxide Price Summary (Unit: CNY/ton)

Today, the market price of ethylene oxide remained stable. On the supply side, ethylene glycol prices remained elevated, and co-production units are still inclined to produce ethylene glycol, leaving spot ethylene oxide in tight supply. On the demand side, downstream sectors performed reasonably well, with purchases based on rigid demand. On the cost side, East China market prices remained strong today, with some production enterprises suspending offers and holding back sales, while mainstream offers stayed firm; however, most derivative products were executed under existing contracts. Overall, short-term supply and cost factors have provided support to the market, and ethylene oxide prices are expected to remain at high levels. Going forward, close attention should be paid to dynamic supply-demand adjustments in upstream and downstream markets.

3. Production Updates

Today, China's ethylene oxide industry capacity utilization rate stood at 51.59%. As of the previous working day, the theoretical profit for ethylene oxide produced from externally purchased imported ethylene was CNY 629.01/ton, fluctuating within a narrow range. The theoretical profit for ethylene oxide produced from externally purchased domestic ethylene was CNY 625/ton today, down from the previous session, mainly due to rising domestic ethylene prices.

4. Price Forecast

Ethylene oxide market is expected to remain firm at high levels. On the supply side, with the tight ethylene glycol supply not yet alleviated, ethylene glycol prices are likely to run strong, and the tight spot supply of ethylene oxide is expected to persist. On the demand side, operating rates in downstream industries are generally stable, with steady consumption. On the cost side, the amount of ethylene available for circulation is insufficient, while downstream rigid-demand buying interest still exists, leaving room for ethylene prices to move higher. Overall, with short-term supply-side support and a cost-side boost, ethylene oxide prices are expected to trend strong. Market participants should continue to monitor upstream and downstream supply-demand changes and adjustment dynamics.

5. Related Product Conditions

1. Ethylene (raw material): At present, domestic spot ethylene available for circulation is insufficient, and some enterprises have suspended quotations and are holding back sales. Derivative market prices are firm, market restocking enthusiasm has increased, and supply-demand is in a tight balance, with expectations of continued upward price movement. Mainstream negotiations in East China are expected to hover around CNY 8,800-9,000/ton, while mainstream negotiations in Shandong have reached CNY 8,700/ton. In USD terms, maintenance turnarounds in Japan and South Korea increase during September-October, but profitability of PVC-type derivatives is poor and demand is mediocre, so prices are likely to stay in the range of USD 1,050-1,160/ton.

2. Polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer (major downstream): The domestic polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer market is likely to run strong. The main raw material ethylene oxide price may remain steady and wait-and-see during the near term, spot supply in the market continues to be tight, ethylene glycol prices are running strong, downstream industries are steadily consuming, ethylene available for circulation is insufficient, downstream rigid-demand buying intention remains, and ethylene prices still have upward room. On the monomer side, low-priced supply has decreased and spot goods are insufficient; downstream users make inquiries based on rigid demand and are cautious about high-priced purchases, with transactions negotiated according to volume. In the short term, prices or operate strong. In summary, the EPEG price in the main East China market is expected to reach CNY 10,300-10,500/ton on the next working day.

3. Ethylene glycol (related product): Amid geopolitical tensions and persistent tight-supply expectations for ethylene glycol, the short-term market is more likely to remain strong. Tomorrow's East China spot self-pickup price is expected to be in the CNY 6,800-6,900 range.

6. Data Calendar

Table 2 Domestic Ethylene Oxide Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons)