EO Prices Remain Firm at High Levels (Sep 20, 2026)

1. Daily Summary

1. Sep 18: International crude oil prices fell as expectations for the repair of Saudi Arabian pipelines improved, coupled with signs of easing tensions in the Middle East. NYMEX WTI crude oil futures (October contract) closed at $100.3/bbl, down $1.61/bbl (-1.58% WoW); ICE Brent crude oil futures (November contract) closed at $103.87/bbl, down $0.95/bbl (-0.91% WoW). China INE crude oil futures (contract 2611) fell by 50.6 to 754.4 RMB/bbl; the night session dropped by 19.6 to 734.8 RMB/bbl.

2. Sep 18: Portside ethylene CFR Northeast Asia price was quoted at $1,180/ton, up $10/ton from the previous working day.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic Ethylene Oxide Price Summary (Unit: RMB/ton)

The ethylene oxide (EO) market remained stable. On the supply side, rising monoethylene glycol (MEG) prices have shifted the production focus of integrated units toward MEG. Combined with persistently high feedstock costs and tight supply, some units have shut down or reduced operating rates, further tightening supply. Downstream industries are consuming steadily. Regarding costs, mainstream ethylene producers face no inventory pressure, and the market lacks directional news, leading to stable offers today with cost support remaining firm. Overall, fundamental factors continue to provide short-term support, keeping EO prices firm. Continued attention should be paid to upstream and downstream developments.

3. Production Dynamics

Today, the capacity utilization rate of China's ethylene oxide industry stood at 49.22%. As of the previous working day, the theoretical profit for EO produced using imported ethylene was 1,580.04 RMB/ton. The theoretical profit for EO produced using domestic ethylene today was 1,312.5 RMB/ton, unchanged week-on-week.

4. Price Forecast

Ethylene oxide is expected to trade at high levels in the short term. On the supply side, availability of MEG remains tight, suggesting potential strength in the near term. Integrated units may maintain MEG production, limiting incremental spot supply of EO, thus providing continued supply-side support. On the demand side, downstream industries may see narrow adjustments in operating rates, maintaining steady consumption. Regarding costs, recent ethylene trading has been sluggish, leaving producers with insufficient momentum to push prices higher. Ethylene prices are likely to remain stable in the short term, providing cost support. Overall, supply and cost factors will continue to support the market in the short term, with EO prices likely to remain firm at high levels. Future trends depend on changes in the upstream and downstream sectors.

5. Related Product Updates

① Ethylene (Feedstock): Currently, domestic ethylene spot liquidity is low, with most producers selling primarily through pre-sales. However, slight declines in crude oil prices have affected buyer sentiment, resulting in average trading activity. Next working day, ethylene prices are expected to remain stagnant and consolidate, though minor downward adjustments in some high-priced quotes cannot be ruled out. Mainstream negotiated prices in East China are around 9,400 RMB/ton, while Shandong prices have reached 9,300 RMB/ton. In terms of USD pricing, the shipping market continues to receive supply-side support, with price ranges likely hovering between $1,140–$1,200/ton.

② Polycarboxylate Superplasticizer Monomer (Key Downstream): Domestic polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomers are expected to trade at high levels. Key raw material EO is likely to remain stable. MEG supply patterns persist, suggesting potential strength in its prices. Tight spot availability of EO provides floor support for its price. Downstream industries maintain essential purchasing. Recent ethylene trading has been sluggish, reducing producers' motivation to raise prices, so costs are likely to stabilize in the short term, providing bottom support. High prices in the monomer market have led to cautious follow-up buying based on essential needs, with a strong wait-and-see attitude prevailing. Spot inventories are limited, and holders show little willingness to offer discounts; transactions are negotiated based on volume. Consequently, the mainstream EPEG price in East China is projected to range between 12,000–12,200 RMB/ton.

③ Monoethylene Glycol (Related Product): Geopolitical tensions remain volatile, with crude oil prices staying high. Strong supply-side fundamentals for MEG continue to provide robust support to the market, suggesting that short-term strength will persist. Tomorrow's ex-tank spot price in East China is estimated to range between 7,300–7,400 RMB/ton.

6. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Ethylene Oxide Data Overview (Unit: 10k tons)