Lead-in: Currently, diethylene glycol (DEG) is experiencing a simultaneous decline in both supply and demand, leaving limited room for market adjustment. The impact of crude oil and bulk commodity trends on the market is minimal, with most traders following the market and waiting for new guidance. Amidst this stalemate, attention should be paid to shifts in the sentiment of holders; if oil prices return to an upward trend, they will support DEG prices.
Missed Middle Eastern Shipments and Reduced Domestic Output
Table 1: Estimated Incoming Vessels at Major East China Ports
Unit: Tons
| Vessel Name | Quantity | Berth | Estimated Arrival Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prodigy Galaxy | 1,170 | Changjiang International | November 19 |
| Silver Purple Garden | 1,000 | Changjiang International | November 22 |
| Formosa Jade | 4,000 | Changjiang International | November 26 |
| Fulda | 1,100 | Changjiang International | November 30 |
| Total Estimated Arrivals | 7,270 |
Data Source: Chempricehub Information
In late November, no clear shipment information has been reported from Sabic. Nanya remains the primary source of imports, with a relaxed schedule for vessels arriving at major ports, while shipments from other regions are scarce. On the domestic front, the current capacity utilization rate for DEG is 57.53%, a month-on-month decrease of 2.89 percentage points. During the week, Yulong Petrochemical shut down, and the restart time for Ningbo Fude is undetermined. Hainan Refining & Chemical, Satellite Petrochemical Unit #1, and Shenghong Refining & Chemical Unit #1 remain offline. Combined with previous load reductions and product switching at certain units, near-term supply has contracted significantly.
Mixed Downstream Performance; Steady Shipping Volumes at Major Ports
In November, unsaturated resin and polyurethane sectors have seen low continuity in new orders, leading to reduced spot procurement. However, overall operating rates at polyester plants have rebounded, increasing their willingness to replenish stocks. Currently, Zhangjiagang sees almost no concentrated purchasing, with demand primarily driven by essential needs. Average daily shipping volumes hover around 600 tons, while terminal inventory has dropped to 11,500 tons due to insufficient vessel arrivals. Basic inventory levels are sufficient to support market stability.
International crude oil prices have performed weakly, dragging down bulk commodity markets with varying degrees of decline, presenting bearish external factors. Internally, the demand side faces shortages in new downstream orders and reduced procurement, while the supply side suffers from domestic unit shutdowns and insufficient weekly vessel arrivals. These supply-demand offsets have prevented the market from falling. However, lacking effective guidance, DEG's trading range within this phase remains fixed.
Table 1: Weekly Price Overview of Diethylene Glycol and Related Products
| Product | Region/Grade | 2026/11/12 | 2026/11/5 | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI (Previous Day Price) | Futures | 86.53 | 88.12 | -1.59 | -1.80% |
| Ethylene (Previous Day Price) | Northeast Asia | 1250 | 1240 | 10 | 0.81% |
| Monoethylene Glycol (MEG) | East China | 5850 | 5465 | 385 | 7.04% |
| Diethylene Glycol (DEG) | East China | 7130 | 7060 | 70 | 0.99% |
| Unsaturated Resin 196# | East China | 10800 | 11300 | -500 | -4.42% |
Data Source: Chempricehub Information
From a fundamental perspective, the offsetting model between supply and demand shows strong continuity. Domestic operating rates are not high, spot availability is average, and imported vessel cargoes amount to only a few thousand tons, suggesting that inventory at major ports may drop below 10,000 tons. Meanwhile, downstream demand remains relatively weak, with fewer new orders suppressing procurement. In this stalemate, monitor changes in holder sentiment. Additionally, if international oil prices return to an upward trend, it will become a supporting factor for DEG price movements.
Comments
0