I. Key Points
On September 16, international crude oil prices declined as various parties attempted to ease tensions in the Middle East, compounded by the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike boosting the US dollar. The NYMEX WTI October futures contract closed at $102.43/bbl, down $3.40/bbl (-3.21% WoW); the ICE Brent November futures contract closed at $105.83/bbl, down $2.92/bbl (-2.69% WoW). The INE Shanghai Crude Oil November 2026 (2611) contract rose by CNY 2.2 to CNY 838.4/bbl during the day session but fell by CNY 33.6 to CNY 804.8/bbl in the night session.
On the 16th, trading activity in the Asian styrene USD market was moderate. Rising RMB prices provided support for USD quotes, leading to an upward fluctuation in the USD market throughout the day. FOB Korea settled at $1,403–$1,413/ton (average +$8); CFR China settled at $1,363–$1,373/ton (average +$8). Unit: USD/ton.
On the 16th, theoretical production and sales margins compared to the previous trading day showed: integrated enterprise profits increased by CNY 384 to CNY 1,983/ton; non-integrated enterprise losses narrowed by CNY 10 to CNY -579/ton.
Core Logic: Recently, the market has been balancing between strong cost pressures, low inventory levels, and insufficient downstream absorption capacity. In the short term, the styrene market is likely to remain volatile at high levels with significant underlying contradictions. Negative feedback from downstream sectors has increased recently, potentially leading to a slight narrowing of inter-month spreads.
II. Price Table
| Product | Region | Sep 15 | Sep 16 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil | Brent | 108.75 | 105.83 | -2.92 |
| Ethylene | CFR NE Asia | 1150 | 1170 | +20 |
| Pure Benzene | East China Market | 9735 | 9925 | +190 |
| Styrene | Jiangsu Market | 10485 | 10690 | +205 |
| Notes: | ||||
| 1. Brent crude oil: USD/bbl; CFR NE Asia ethylene: USD/ton; pure benzene and styrene: CNY/ton. | ||||
| 2. Prices for pure benzene and styrene are based on mainstream market closing averages. | ||||
| 3. All RMB prices in the table above are spot exchange rates including tax. | ||||
| 4. Change rate refers to week-on-week variation. |
III. Market Outlook
Styrene: Recently, the market has been balancing between strong cost pressures, low inventory levels, and insufficient downstream absorption capacity. Efforts to ease Middle East tensions, combined with the Federal Reserve's rate hike strengthening the US dollar, have led to a decline in international crude oil prices. With Liwayi restarting operations, Anqing Petrochemical undergoing maintenance, and planned maintenance at Lianyungang plants, marginal supply recovery may fall short of expectations. While negative feedback from downstream sectors has led to increased production cuts, the tight physical market situation is unlikely to fundamentally reverse until absolute inventory levels accumulate effectively. In the short term, the styrene market is expected to remain volatile at high levels with significant contradictions. Increased downstream negative feedback in recent months may lead to a slight narrowing of inter-month spreads.
IV. Data Table
| Data Type | Previous Period | Current Period | Change Rate | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jiangsu Port Inventory | 3.73 | 3.43 | -8.04% | ↘ |
| South China Port Inventory | 1.55 | 2.87 | +85.16% | ↘ |
| Operating Rate | 63.27% | 64.55% | +1.28 | ↗ |
| Sample Enterprise Inventory | 14.43 | 13.53 | -6.19% | ↘ |
| Notes: | ||||
| 1. Data in the table represents weekly styrene statistics; ↘ indicates downward trend, ↗ indicates upward trend. | ||||
| 2. Styrene Jiangsu port inventory data is released before 15:00 on Monday of the current week. | ||||
| 3. Styrene East China port inventory data is released before 17:00 on Monday of the current week. | ||||
| 4. Styrene operating rate data is released before 18:00 on Thursday of the current week. | ||||
| 5. Styrene sample enterprise inventory data is released before 17:00 on Thursday of the current week. |
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