Stalemate Between Supply and Demand Leads to Range-Bound Butadiene Market

1. Today's Summary

① On September 30, Sinopec East China ex-factory price for butadiene remained stable at 13,500 RMB/ton. The downstream synthetic rubber market prices rose.

② On September 30, the domestic butadiene industry operating rate was 67.43%, a slight increase of 0.04 percentage points from the previous working day.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table: Domestic Butadiene Price Summary (Unit: RMB/ton)

Based on the delivered price in the Shandong Central region, today’s price closed at 13,700 RMB/ton, a month-on-month increase of 25 RMB/ton. Today, the domestic butadiene market saw a slight upward trend. The main downstream synthetic rubber sector moved higher, improving market sentiment slightly. Traders had little willingness to sell low, leading to modest increases in offers. However, downstream demand remained weak, with poor willingness to purchase at high prices, increasing resistance to transactions at elevated levels; thus, the market trended slightly upward. The delivered price range in Shandong Central was 13,650–13,750 RMB/ton, while the reference tank truck pickup price in East China was around 13,400 RMB/ton.

On September 30, the domestic butadiene industry operating rate was 67.43%, a slight increase of 0.04 percentage points from the previous working day. Regarding theoretical production profit, on September 29, the Japanese naphtha market declined, while the Sinopec butadiene price remained stable at 13,500 RMB/ton. Consequently, the theoretical production profit for butadiene via C4 extraction increased, with the calculated profit for the C4 extraction process reaching 4,442.49 RMB/ton.

4. Price Forecast

In the short term, Yangzi Petrochemical’s butadiene units in East China are gradually restarting, and there is an expectation for Hainan Refining & Chemical’s unit to restart. Meanwhile, some units in North China have shut down for maintenance. Overall domestic output shows a slight increase, providing limited support to the market trend. Additionally, profit recovery in downstream industries remains slow, and cautious buying sentiment may suppress the market. It is expected that the domestic butadiene market will fluctuate weakly at high levels.

5. Related Products Status

Synthetic Rubber Market: Today, prices for both butadiene rubber (BR) and styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR) increased. In the Shandong market, Daqing BR9000 prices rose by 500 RMB/ton to 15,900 RMB/ton, and Qilu SBR 1502 prices rose by 400 RMB/ton to 16,100 RMB/ton.

6. Data Calendar

Table: Domestic Butadiene Data List (Unit: 10,000 tons, RMB/ton)

Notes:

1. ↓↑ indicates significant fluctuations, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%.
2. ↗↘ indicates narrow fluctuations, highlighting data with changes within 0–3%.