Spot methanol prices surged significantly, with the market maintaining a bullish trend ahead of the holiday.

1. Key Focus Today

① Yulin Yankuang’s methanol auction today started at 3,340 CNY/ton for a volume of 7,000 tons, with all units sold at final prices ranging from 3,385 to 3,390 CNY/ton.

② The 700,000 tons/year coal-to-methanol unit at Yulin Coal Chemical (Kaiyue) is currently restarting and is expected to produce product in early October. This maintenance shutdown began on September 4. The associated downstream 500,000 tons/year coal-to-ethanol project will restart sequentially and gradually.

2. Market Trends and Outlook

Table 1: Summary of Domestic Methanol and Related Product Prices (Unit: CNY/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

[Today’s Commentary] Today’s domestic methanol spot price index stood at 3,716.77, an increase of 128.92. Specifically, the spot price in Taicang was 4,555 (+300), and the Inner Mongolia North Line price was 3,450 (+115). According to Chempricehub monitoring across 20 major cities, prices rose to varying degrees in 18 cities, with increases ranging from 25 to 350 CNY/ton. The domestic methanol market continued its strong upward trend. Futures maintained their strength, lifting transaction centers at ports. The intraday basis surged strongly before weakening slightly in the afternoon. Market participants are closely watching how macroeconomic news volatility transmits to commodity markets. Domestic production and sales markets rose simultaneously. Currently, upstream inventories remain low. Combined with sluggish restarts of some projects in Daqi and continued pre-holiday restocking by downstream users, various markets are expected to maintain a bullish tone before the holiday. Attention remains focused on the extent of freight cost increases.

3. Basis

Afternoon trading saw gains in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange methanol futures. The MA2610 contract opened at 3,525 CNY/ton, hit a high of 3,576 CNY/ton and a low of 3,457 CNY/ton, closing at 3,545 CNY/ton, up 131 CNY/ton from the previous day’s settlement. As of close, open interest for the MA2609 contract was 127,500 lots, down 29,300 lots from the previous trading day.

4. Production Dynamics

Table 2: Summary of Methanol and Downstream Production Dynamics

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

5. Price Forecast

6. Today, the domestic methanol market continued its strong upward momentum. Futures remained strong, pushing port transaction centers higher. The intraday basis surged before softening slightly in the afternoon. Participants continue to monitor the impact of macroeconomic news volatility on commodities. Domestic production and sales markets are rising in tandem. With upstream inventories remaining low, coupled with delayed restarts of certain projects in Daqi and ongoing pre-holiday restocking by downstream users, markets are expected to maintain a bullish bias before the holiday. Continued attention is needed on the intensity of freight cost increases.

7. In the medium to long term, as previously shut-down methanol plants resume operations, the tightness in domestic methanol supply has eased somewhat. However, most downstream inventories remain unsatisfactory, leading to continued replenishment purchases recently. Consequently, any decline in methanol prices may be limited. Key factors to watch include the pace of plant restarts and the degree of demand reduction from downstream sectors, which will determine whether support levels hold.

8. Market Sentiment

Table 3: Sentiment Expectations of Domestic Methanol Upstream and Downstream Practitioners

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

7. Related Products Overview

Glacial Acetic Acid: During the holiday period, factory prices for glacial acetic acid continued to rise by 100–110 CNY/ton. Today, factory prices were mostly stable, with some plants catching up on the holiday price increases. Current factory inventories are running at low levels, but overall downstream purchasing enthusiasm has slowed. Market participants should monitor recent fluctuations in supply and demand. Chempricehub forecasts that short-term market prices for glacial acetic acid will remain relatively stable.

Formaldehyde: Today’s formaldehyde market showed mixed trends. Raw material methanol traded strongly during the day, providing good cost support. In Shandong and Henan regions, mainstream factories raised prices due to low inventories and high costs, resulting in smooth shipments. In Anhui and some neighboring areas, price centers dipped slightly within narrow ranges. Overall market buying and selling activity remained steady. Chempricehub forecasts that the short-term formaldehyde market will fluctuate with a bullish bias.

Dimethyl Ether (DME): Today, the DME market center strengthened. Major production areas rebounded driven by cost pressures, with active negotiations. Downstream end-users showed strong willingness to stockpile ahead of the holiday, while traders entered the market actively. Factories focused on clearing main sales inventory, achieving smooth shipments. Chempricehub forecasts that the short-term DME market will fluctuate with a bullish bias.

8. Data Calendar

Table 4: List of Domestic Methanol Data (Unit: 10,000 tons)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information
Note: 1. ↓↑ indicates significant volatility, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%. 2. ↗↘ indicates narrow-range fluctuations, highlighting data with changes within 0–3%.