Significant cost pressures as ECH prices rise

1. Daily Summary

① Glycerin prices remained stable within a narrow range. The delivered price for 99.5% glycerin in East China was between RMB 8,850–9,050/ton (including delivery to surrounding areas).

② ECH prices rose. The delivered acceptance-based price in the Jiangsu market was RMB 11,100–11,200/ton.

③ Cost pressures persisted, but demand showed no improvement. The epoxy resin market operated with overall stability and minor fluctuations.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Summary of Domestic ECH Prices (Unit: RMB/ton)

Taking the Jiangsu region as the benchmark, today's ECH price closed at RMB 11,150/ton, an increase of RMB 100/ton from the previous period, consistent with morning expectations. Today, the ECH market exhibited an upward trend. Currently, propylene and glycerin prices remain high, significantly compressing profits across different production processes. This has strengthened producers' inclination to raise prices, leading to continuous increases in ex-works prices. While downstream buyers are entering the market opportunistically during dips, low-priced supply is scarce, and actual transaction volumes are limited, with most deals driven by rigid demand.

3. Production Dynamics

Today, domestic ECH plants maintained low-load operations, with industry capacity utilization hovering around 44%. For ECH produced via the propylene route, costs stood at RMB 10,460/ton, yielding a daily profit of RMB 390/ton. For ECH produced via the glycerin route, costs were RMB 11,950/ton, resulting in a daily loss of RMB 800/ton.

4. Price Forecast

The domestic ECH market trended upward today. Significant cost pressures persist across various production methods. Notably, the propylene route has seen substantial recent increases in the price of its primary feedstock, propylene, sharply compressing profit margins. Consequently, producers have shown strong sentiment to push prices higher, continuously raising ex-works quotes. Although downstream buyers are replenishing stocks during price dips, low-priced货源 (supply) remains difficult to find, with transactions primarily consisting of small orders driven by rigid demand. In the short term, ECH prices are expected to continue their upward trajectory.

5. Related Products

Epoxy Resin Market: Taking East China as the benchmark, the ex-works net water price for liquid E-51 epoxy resin closed today at RMB 14,800–15,200/ton, unchanged from the previous period. In Huangshan, the cash settlement price for solid E-12 epoxy resin in surrounding areas closed at RMB 14,400–14,700/ton, remaining flat compared to the last trading day, aligning with morning market expectations. With raw material ECH prices rising slightly, wait-and-see attitudes increased in the epoxy resin market. Factories maintained stable offers, while downstream demand continued to follow rigid needs, keeping the market center of gravity in consolidation.

Glycerin Market: Taking East China as the benchmark, the delivered price for 99.5% glycerin closed today at RMB 8,950/ton, unchanged from the previous period. Freight costs were referenced at approximately RMB 150/ton, largely meeting morning expectations. Today, the domestic glycerin market remained stagnant and consolidated. A rebound in downstream epoxy resin prices provided some support to the glycerin market; however, current activity focuses mainly on digesting existing inventory of raw materials. Actual purchasing enthusiasm has not improved significantly, seller quotes remain temporarily stable, and the market continues to consolidate in a stalemate. In the short term, while there is some support from the demand side, the driving force for upward movement in glycerin prices remains limited. The domestic glycerin market is expected to continue consolidating within a narrow range.

Table 2: Domestic ECH Data Overview (Unit: RMB/ton)