Lead-in: In 2026, the domestic trade landscape for vinyl acetate (VAM) underwent a historic shift. Export volumes reached record highs while import volumes contracted significantly, transforming the industry from its traditional net-import position into a substantial net-exporter. The contrasting trends in domestic and international trade data signal a leapfrog improvement in China’s self-sufficiency and global competitiveness in the VAM sector.
According to import data, total VAM imports for January–September 2026 fell dramatically compared to the same period in 2025. Total imports amounted to 52,000 tons, representing a year-on-year decline of 36%. Monthly figures reveal a significant contraction in import volumes, with September imports dropping to zero—the most representative indicator on the import side for the year. A temporary surge occurred only in March, reaching 16,300 tons, while imports remained at low levels in most other months; for instance, May saw only 997 tons imported.
Regarding pricing, the average import price fluctuated intensely in 2026. During April and May, tight overseas supply caused import prices to spike rapidly, far exceeding the range seen in 2025. However, as domestic supply became abundant, import prices retreated to around USD 700/ton in the second half of the year. The disappearance of the price advantage for overseas goods further suppressed import demand.
From a supply and demand perspective, this reversal in the trade structure stems from a dual mismatch between domestic and overseas markets. On the supply side, domestic VAM plants have maintained high operating rates, continuously releasing capacity and significantly increasing the market self-sufficiency rate. Domestic products have clearly crowded out imports, markedly reducing the domestic market's reliance on overseas raw materials. Conversely, several overseas VAM units entered maintenance cycles, widening supply gaps for downstream feedstocks such as polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) and EVA. This drove up overseas spot prices, highlighting the cost-performance advantage of Chinese VAM. Consequently, domestic producers actively adjusted their sales channels, shifting supplies toward overseas markets, leading to a concentration of export orders.
In 2026, China’s VAM exports surged to historical highs. According to General Administration of Customs of China (GACC) data, exports from January to September exhibited explosive growth, forming a stark contrast with the same period in 2025. Total exports for this nine-month period reached 161,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 413%, marking an all-time high.
Monthly data shows that exports were relatively low in the first quarter but accelerated rapidly starting in April. From April through September, monthly export volumes consistently exceeded 20,000 tons, peaking at 30,000 tons in September. This contrasts sharply with 2025, when monthly exports generally remained below 6,500 tons. Average export prices followed a trend of rising then falling, peaking at USD 1,501/ton in May. While prices moderated slightly during July–September, strong order support kept export volumes running at high levels.
Regarding destination markets, China’s VAM export flows are highly concentrated. India is the largest destination, followed by Belgium, with these two countries accounting for roughly half of total export volume. The remaining exports are distributed across Turkey, Pakistan, South Korea, Egypt, Russia, Spain, Indonesia, and other nations.
India represents the core incremental market for this year, with export volumes far surpassing others and serving as the primary driver of the export boom. Strong local demand in India for downstream industries such as PVA, adhesives, and coatings, combined with supply gaps caused by local VAM plant maintenance, led to massive procurement of Chinese goods. Belgium ranks second, acting as both a regional transit hub and consumer market in Europe, absorbing large volumes of Chinese VAM to serve European downstream chains. Turkey, Pakistan, and South Korea form the second tier of markets, with export volumes in the ten-thousand-ton range, representing stable traditional demand. Exports to Egypt and Russia hover around 7,000 tons, while Spain and Indonesia account for smaller volumes, serving as supplementary destinations.
The distribution of export customs registration locations within China is also highly concentrated. Shanghai is the top export registration location, with volumes far exceeding other provinces, making it the core port for VAM export declarations this year. The Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Anhui Province, and Jiangsu Province form the second tier, with export scales ranging between 19,000 and 25,000 tons. Specifically, Guangxi leverages its southwestern port advantages to ship to South and Southeast Asian markets, while Anhui and Jiangsu benefit from local chemical industrial clusters, allowing affiliated production enterprises to declare exports directly. Zhejiang and Henan have relatively limited export volumes, while Shandong recorded the lowest export declaration volume, with only minor shipments departing from there.
Overall, the incremental growth in China’s VAM exports in 2026 was primarily driven by the Indian market, with overseas demand concentrated in South Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. Demand characteristics vary by destination: India’s demand is driven by rigid needs of local downstream manufacturing; Belgium serves partly as a trade transit point; and Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan represent regional rigid demand for PVA, emulsions, and coating raw materials.
In 2025, China still maintained significant VAM import volumes, resulting in a net export deficit of -74,800 tons for the year. In 2026, however, imports plummeted while exports surged. For January–September, the net export balance turned positive at 109,000 tons, marking China’s transition from a net importer to a net exporter of VAM. Exports have become a crucial channel for absorbing domestic capacity, reshaping the trade structure.
In summary, the restructuring of China’s VAM import-export landscape in 2026 is the result of combined domestic capacity expansion and overseas supply contraction. The industry has officially moved from a net-import phase to a net-export phase, with exports becoming a vital avenue for digesting surplus domestic capacity. Nevertheless, future market conditions remain uncertain. Key factors to monitor include the pace of overseas unit restarts; once normal supply resumes abroad, narrowing overseas raw material gaps could pressure domestic export orders, and overseas goods may re-enter the domestic market. Additionally, domestic plant maintenance schedules and shifts in downstream demand for PVA and EVA will continue to influence the rhythm of VAM imports/exports and the linkage between domestic and international prices.
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