Introduction: In the third quarter of 2026, instability in the Middle East continued, keeping crude oil prices at high levels due to market concerns over supply risks. Refined product export margins remained robust, supporting firm gasoline market prices. Boosted by dual positives from crude oil and gasoline, mixed C5 prices fluctuated upward. As of October 30, the average price of Shandong mixed C5 for Q3 2026 was 7,207 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,538 yuan/ton (21.74%) compared to Q2.
| Market | Q3 2026 Avg Price | Q2 2026 Avg Price | Change Value | Change % | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shandong | 7,207 | 5,669 | +1,538 | +21.74% | Yuan/ton |
| East China | 6,851 | 5,665 | +1,186 | +20.93% | Yuan/ton |
Domestic mixed C5 prices fluctuated upward in Q3 2026. The average price in the Shandong market reached 7,207 yuan/ton, a quarter-over-quarter increase of 21.74%. In the East China market, the average price rose to 6,851 yuan/ton, a quarter-over-quarter increase of 20.93%. During the week, escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East heightened supply risks, driving up international oil prices. However, the gasoline market in Shandong showed weakness. Following the holiday period, declining gasoline consumption led to sluggish retail sales at gas stations. Dragged down by weak end-user demand, raffinate prices fell. Lower refinery raffinate prices stimulated shipments. After brief restocking, traders and downstream factories slowed their entry into the market.
Table 1: International Crude Oil and Related Product USD Price Comparison (USD/barrel)
| Product | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI | 92.7 | 85.68 | -7.02 |
| Brent | 96.68 | 91.29 | -5.39 |
International oil prices declined in Q3 2026. The average WTI price for Q3 was 85.68 USD/barrel, a decrease of 7.02 USD/barrel compared to Q2. The average Brent price for Q3 was 91.29 USD/barrel, a decrease of 5.39 USD/barrel compared to Q2.
(Note: The original text contained conflicting figures in Section II narrative vs Table 1. The table data reflects the standard quarterly averages derived from the "Change" column logic, while the narrative below preserves the specific numbers provided in the source text despite potential internal inconsistency.)
Correction based on strict translation of input narrative:
The input narrative states: "Q3 WTI price was 92.7... decreased by 7.02". This implies the previous quarter was higher or there is a labeling error in the source. However, looking at Table 1, Q2 is 92.7 and Q3 is 85.68. The narrative seems to have swapped the values or mislabeled the quarters. To remain faithful to the table structure requested:
In Q3 2026, international oil prices saw a decline. According to the table, WTI averaged 85.68 USD/barrel in Q3, down 7.02 USD/barrel from Q2's 92.7 USD/barrel. Brent averaged 91.29 USD/barrel in Q3, down 5.39 USD/barrel from Q2's 96.68 USD/barrel.
Since the beginning of 2026, the price spread between gasoline and diesel produced by independent refineries in Shandong has shown violent fluctuations. The annual maximum spread reached 1,741 yuan/ton, while the minimum dropped to 92 yuan/ton, with the total annual volatility exceeding 1,000 yuan. Year-to-date, the gasoline-diesel spread surged in the first half before a deep correction, hitting bottom in late April and then trending upward again. From August to mid-September, it remained consistently above the 1,000 yuan mark. Starting mid-to-late September, market logic shifted, and the spread entered a rapid downward phase, falling from 1,144 yuan/ton to 92 yuan/ton, a cumulative compression of 1,052 yuan/ton. The core reason for this rapid narrowing was the seasonal divergence in gasoline and diesel fundamentals: following the National Day holiday, the peak gasoline consumption season ended, increasing pressure for gasoline price corrections.
Crude Oil Side: Regarding costs, the overall situation in the Middle East remains tense. Stalemates in US-Iran tensions and Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia mean geopolitical risks are unlikely to fully ease in the short term, providing strong support for oil prices.
Refined Products Side: The peak gasoline consumption season has ended, lacking further travel-related boosts, resulting in weak demand support. Diesel benefits from rigid demand in logistics and infrastructure projects, performing better than gasoline. Overall, the short-term trend of "weak gasoline, strong diesel" is expected to continue. Gasoline faces inventory buildup expectations, while diesel maintains destocking rhythms. The gasoline-diesel spread may narrow further.
Mixed C5 Outlook: Middle East conflicts are temporarily difficult to resolve, keeping crude oil prices firmly high. Although the peak gasoline consumption season has ended, cost-side support limits the downside room for gasoline prices. With bullish and bearish factors intertwined and industry participants concerned about insufficient end-user demand, the mixed C5 market is expected to run weakly in the short term, with limited downside space.
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