Quota Exhaustion Meets Window Closure: Divergent Domestic and Export Market Trends for Fluorinated Refrigerants

Introduction: This week, the fluorocarbon refrigerant market exhibited a pattern of "domestic stability and divergent foreign trade." The domestic market remained broadly firm; among the four mainstream grades, only R22 saw its weekly average price drop by 4.37% to 17,214 CNY/ton. Foreign trade quotes showed mixed movements: R143a surged by 14.29%, driven by the depletion of export quotas, while R32, R125, and R134a experienced moderate corrections. As the December export window approaches its close, quota consumption progress is simultaneously reshaping the pricing logic for both domestic and international markets.

Table: Weekly Foreign Trade Price Changes for Refrigerants (Unit: CNY/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

This week, foreign trade quotes for refrigerants continued their divergent trend, with the eight tracked varieties showing a pattern of "four flat, three down, one up." Foreign trade quotes for R22, R410A, R404A, and R507A remained unchanged, as the high proportion of long-term contract orders provided strong price stickiness. Export quotes for R32 and R125 fell synchronously by 1,286 CNY/ton, representing declines of 2.41% and 2.78%, respectively. R134a dipped slightly by 429 CNY/ton, a decline of 0.75%. These three varieties are primarily traded on the spot market; previous high-level quotes had suppressed overseas buyers' willingness to take delivery. Combined with year-end order front-loading and shipping schedule arrangements, traders offered slight discounts to facilitate actual transactions. In contrast, R143a stood out as the sole gainer, rising significantly by 3,429 CNY/ton to reach 27,429 CNY/ton, an increase of 14.29%. This surge was supported by supply scarcity resulting from the near-depletion of export quotas.

Market intelligence indicates that major leading manufacturers have largely exhausted their domestic-use quotas for fluorocarbon refrigerant R143a, with export quotas also nearing their limit. Since channel feedback in October highlighted tight spot availability for blended refrigerant R507A, this shortage has persisted without relief. Supported by positive factors on both the supply and demand sides, domestic prices for R143a and R507A have remained firmly at high levels, with actual transaction prices closely tracking guided quote prices. As of press time, reference quotes for R143a in the East China market were 51,000–53,000 CNY/ton, and mainstream quotes for R507A were 52,000–54,000 CNY/ton (ex-factory, tax included). In the foreign trade market, the rationale for this round of price increases mirrors that of the domestic market: the depletion of export quotas and the fact that the December export window has not yet closed mean that phased rigid procurement needs, combined with concentrated year-end shipments, have jointly sustained firm foreign trade quotes and increased export volumes.

Monthly exports of fluorocarbon refrigerants R125/R143a totaled 2,098.07 tons, representing a month-on-month increase of 74.22% and a year-on-year increase of 154.67%; cumulative year-on-year growth stood at 33.71%. The export trend exhibits characteristics of "significant volume jump, explosive year-on-year growth, and divergent average prices." The month-on-month growth rate reached a recent peak, reflecting the concentrated fulfillment of overseas restocking demand within the quota window. Under the rigid constraint of quotas, the supply elasticity for R125/R143a remains limited; the sustainability of export volumes will depend more on demand-side variables. It remains necessary to monitor the continuity of overseas restocking in subsequent months, the final implementation of quota adjustments, and the shift in order pacing before and after the window closes. If concentrated year-end shipments exhaust some future demand, there is a risk of declining export volumes in Q1 of next year.

In the short term, before the closure of the December export window, the foreign trade market is likely to continue operating with a rhythm of "increasing volume, decreasing prices, and divergence." Quotes for varieties with ample quotas will remain under pressure and may soften, while the firm status of varieties facing quota shortages, such as R143a, is difficult to reverse. Meanwhile, the domestic market is expected to maintain broad stability, supported by significant quota consumption and tightened spot circulation. The price gap between domestic and foreign trade for R22 has widened noticeably. Domestic ODS demand contraction and channel destocking have driven domestic prices lower, while foreign trade quotes have remained stable. This price gap may gradually converge in the short term through "stabilization of domestic prices" and "maintenance of foreign trade prices."