Prompt

1. Key Focus Points

① Inner Mongolia Jiutai (Tuoxian) maintained its ex-factory methanol price at 3,345 RMB/ton today; market response remains to be observed.

② Ningxia Changyi’s 600,000-ton/year coal-to-methanol unit began maintenance on November 1, with an estimated duration of 20 days.

2. Market Trends and Outlook

Table 1: Summary of Domestic Methanol and Related Product Prices (Unit: RMB/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

Note: Figures 1 and 2 (Price Trend Charts for Key Regions and Downstream Products) have been omitted as per instructions.

[Daily Commentary] Today, the domestic methanol spot price index stood at 3,482.47, down by 27.49. Specifically, Taicang spot prices fell by 57 to 3,898, while Inner Mongolia North Line prices remained unchanged at 3,305. According to Chempricehub monitoring across 20 major cities, prices declined in 15 cities, with drops ranging from 20 to 145 RMB/ton. The overall domestic methanol market sentiment was slightly weak. Current volatility is primarily driven by external macroeconomic factors. Futures prices trended lower during the day before a minor afternoon rebound, with buyers entering positions at lower levels, causing the basis to strengthen steadily. Inland markets showed relative resilience compared to coastal areas; except for Henan, which followed the significant declines seen in coastal regions, price adjustments in Northwest and North China were limited. In the short term, attention should remain on developments regarding the US midterm elections and US-Iran relations. Fundamentally, given manageable supply-side pressure and relatively low coastal inventories, the potential for further stage-wise corrections appears limited.

3. Basis Analysis

Note: Figure 3 (Methanol Basis Trend Chart) has been omitted as per instructions.

In the afternoon session, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) methanol futures rebounded strongly. The MA2701 contract opened at 3,526 RMB/ton, reached a high of 3,552 RMB/ton, and hit a low of 3,371 RMB/ton before closing at 3,506 RMB/ton, a decrease of 47 RMB/ton from the previous day's settlement price. As of the close, open interest for the MA2701 contract stood at 915,600 lots, an increase of 7,400 lots from the previous trading day.

4. Production Dynamics

Table 2: Summary of Methanol and Downstream Production Dynamics

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

5. Price Forecast

6. The domestic methanol market exhibited slightly weak sentiment today, with volatility largely driven by external macroeconomic news. Futures prices declined intraday before a modest afternoon rebound, supported by opportunistic buying at lower levels, leading to a steady strengthening of the basis. Inland markets remained relatively resilient; apart from Henan, which mirrored the sharp drops in coastal areas, price corrections in Northwest and North China were minimal. Short-term outlooks hinge on developments in US midterm elections and US-Iran relations. Fundamentally, with supply pressures contained and coastal inventories at relatively low levels, the scope for further correction is expected to be limited.

7. In the medium to long term, inland methanol spot supply remains relatively loose, while coastal spot supplies continue to tighten, driving market prices to fluctuate at high levels. Key variables to monitor include expectations for new capacity startups and import arrival schedules.

8. Market Sentiment

Table 3: Domestic Methanol Upstream and Downstream Industry Participant Sentiment Expectations

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

7. Related Products Overview

Glacial Acetic Acid: Market prices continued to retreat today, with some plants further lowering quotes. Overall market supply increased, prompting traders to reduce offers, while downstream users mostly purchased based on immediate needs or fulfilled existing long-term contracts. Chempricehub forecasts that the glacial acetic acid market may continue to decline in the short term.

Formaldehyde: The formaldehyde market saw a narrow decline today. Morning prices in key production areas were supported by strong cost bases, but environmental controls hindered downstream purchasing enthusiasm throughout the day. Combined with holders actively offering discounts to clear inventory, market negotiation sentiment shifted downward sharply, leading to price drops in multiple regions due to sales pressure. Chempricehub expects the formaldehyde market to trade sideways with a weak bias in the short term.

Dimethyl Ether (DME): The DME market center was unstable today. Supply within the market was ample. Residential demand remained stable, while industrial demand was limited to rigid necessities. Traders held stronger bargaining power amid raw material fluctuations, and some holders offered slight discounts to prioritize sales. Market transactions were thin. Chempricehub anticipates the DME market will consolidate within a narrow range in the short term.

8. Data Calendar

Table 4: Domestic Methanol Data Schedule (Unit: 10,000 tons)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information
Notes:

1. ↓↑ indicates significant fluctuations, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%.
2. ↗↘ indicates narrow fluctuations, highlighting data dimensions with changes within 0–3%.