Prompt

1. Key Focus Points

① Yulin Yankuang's methanol auction today started at 3,250 yuan/ton for a quantity of 7,000 tons. The final transaction price ranged from 3,285 to 3,290 yuan/ton, with all lots sold out.

② Ningxia Changyi’s 600,000-ton/year coal-to-methanol unit began maintenance on November 1, with an estimated duration of 20 days.

2. Market Trends and Outlook

Table 1: Summary of Domestic Methanol and Related Product Prices (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

【Daily Commentary】Today’s methanol spot price index stood at 3,509.96, up by 46.35. Specifically, the Taicang spot price rose by 50 to 3,955, while the Inner Mongolia North Line price increased by 42.5 to 3,305. According to Chempricehub monitoring across 20 major cities, prices in 17 cities showed varying degrees of increase, ranging from 15 to 110 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol market operated strongly overall today. Beyond the support from persistently high futures prices, low port inventories continued to prevail, near-term buyers followed demand, and far-term basis remained firm. Inland market auctions performed reasonably well, with most transactions closing at premiums. Current upstream enterprise inventory pressure remains low. Several methanol projects in Henan, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia are undergoing maintenance. Additionally, active restocking by traders and rigid downstream demand resonated to support strong price performance. Given that supply-demand balance is currently acceptable, the market is expected to maintain firm consolidation in the short term. Attention should also be paid to subsequent policy measures following the U.S. midterm elections.

3. Basis

Afternoon trading on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange saw methanol futures fluctuate with a bullish bias. The MA2701 contract opened at 3,501 yuan/ton, reached a high of 3,615 yuan/ton, and a low of 3,491 yuan/ton, closing at 3,557 yuan/ton, which was 94 yuan/ton higher than the previous day’s settlement price. By the close, the open interest for the MA2701 contract was 908,200 lots, an increase of 27,000 lots from the previous session.

4. Production Dynamics

Table 2: Summary of Methanol and Downstream Production Dynamics

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

5. Price Forecast

6. Today, sentiment in the domestic methanol market changed significantly. Intraday futures initially surged then softened before consolidating at high levels. Near-term purchases followed demand, the basis narrowed into consolidation, while the far-term basis remained slightly stronger. Watch closely for the transmission effect of commodity futures volatility on the spot market. The inland market was weaker in the morning but strengthened in the afternoon as tender prices from Shandong North downstream buyers were released, reigniting buying sentiment. In the short term, given that supply-demand contradictions are not significant, the market is expected to consolidate slightly stronger. Continue to monitor the impact of fluctuations in specific domestic methanol projects.

7. In the medium to long term, the inland methanol spot market faces relatively loose supply, while coastal areas remain tight, driving methanol prices to oscillate at high levels. Key variables to watch include expectations for new capacity startups and the status of imported arrivals.

8. Market Sentiment

Table 3: Sentiment Expectations of Domestic Methanol Stakeholders (Upstream and Downstream)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

7. Related Products Status

Glacial Acetic Acid: Since the weekend, factory and market prices for glacial acetic acid have declined. Today, as factory prices continued to drop, the market followed suit. Factory shipments largely depend on local downstream procurement sentiment. Overall industry sentiment remains neutral; focus on the pace of future downstream purchasing. Chempricehub forecasts that the glacial acetic acid market may trend downward in the short term.

Formaldehyde: Today, the formaldehyde market experienced a narrow decline. Units maintained stable operation at previous load levels, resulting in ample supply. Downstream wood panel manufacturers remained primarily in wait-and-see mode. However, as methanol transaction conditions improved, formaldehyde producers showed willingness to hold prices, and some holders began showing reluctance to sell. Chempricehub forecasts that the formaldehyde market will stop falling and stabilize in the short term.

Dimethyl Ether (DME): Today, the DME market operated steadily. Supply within the market remained at a low level. Civilian sectors procured small amounts in an orderly manner based on needs, while industrial sectors focused on rigid demand with frequent small-volume purchases. Overall market activity was flat. Chempricehub forecasts that the DME market will trade sideways in the short term.

8. Data Calendar

Table 4: List of Domestic Methanol Data (Unit: 10,000 Tons)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information
Notes:

1. ↓↑ indicates significant volatility, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%.
2. ↗↘ indicates narrow-range volatility, highlighting data dimensions with changes within 0-3%.