I. Weekly Market Overview
This week, spot prices in the East China market fluctuated at high levels, with the trading range settling between RMB 10,300 and RMB 10,850 per ton. The correlation between pure benzene and crude oil weakened this week. Following the holiday, inventories in the East China market remained low, and most cargo ownership had already been secured, resulting in limited tradable spot resources. Consequently, the center of gravity for pure benzene negotiations surged significantly.
Refineries implemented a strategy to "prioritize fuel over chemicals," actively reducing aromatic yields. Additionally, some refineries engaged in defensive load reductions due to concerns about future raw material shortages. As a result, overall pure benzene operating rates fell short of expectations, with insufficient elasticity for upward adjustments. Import volumes saw only limited growth. Hydrogenated benzene production rates remained low, constrained by raw material availability and profit margins.
While the overall operating rates of major downstream sectors recovered slightly on a week-on-week basis, high pure benzene prices squeezed downstream production profits. Negative feedback began to emerge, leading to a decline in market prices toward the end of the week.
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II. Next Week Pure Benzene Forecast
The pure benzene market is expected to trend downward with fluctuations next week. On the cost side, international crude oil prices may see modest upside potential, with WTI likely trading in the range of USD 92–98 per barrel and Brent in the range of USD 103–109 per barrel. While geopolitical risk premiums support oil prices, weak demand and restrictive statements from the U.S. President are expected to cap gains.
Pure benzene supply and demand are both projected to decline. Defensive load reductions by refineries will tighten supply, while downstream losses and subsequent production cuts will reduce demand, thereby narrowing the supply-demand gap. Affected by timing differences in deliveries, actual inventory drawdowns at East China ports persist, maintaining a tight spot market structure that supports near-month prices. The estimated trading range for pure benzene prices in the East China market next week is RMB 10,000–10,500 per ton.
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