Following the National Day holiday, domestic vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) market prices continued to rise. The dual positive factors of supply contraction and cost support prompted producers to raise their quotations. Tightened spot availability in the market led to a strong reluctance among holders to sell at low prices, causing low-priced cargo to gradually disappear and the market center to steadily shift upward. As of today, taking East China petrochemical prices as an example, high-end and low-end negotiations ranged from 7,950 to 8,000 RMB/ton, representing a 1.27% increase compared to pre-holiday levels.
Upstream cost support remains robust. Prices for upstream raw materials, namely glacial acetic acid and ethylene, have maintained high levels. Tight supply on the raw material side has continuously elevated VAM production costs, compressing profit margins for producers. This provides a floor for VAM market prices, limiting downside potential and supporting sellers' price hikes.
From the supply perspective, the VAM industry entered a concentrated maintenance window in October. Multiple domestic VAM units scheduled planned maintenance. Some units face risks of temporary shutdowns due to restricted raw material supply, while others are operating at relatively low rates, leading to a continuous decline in industry capacity utilization. Major VAM producers prioritized fulfilling existing contract orders, resulting in persistently limited tradable spot volumes. The tight spot supply situation intensified, with strong willingness among suppliers to hold prices and insufficient incentive to actively sell at lower prices.
Table 1: Summary of VAM Unit Maintenance in China for October 2026 (Unit: 10,000 tons)
| Producer | Process Type | Capacity | Start Date | End Date | Days | Loss Volume | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inner Mongolia Shuangxin | Calcium Carbide Method | 27 | 2026-10-04 | 2026-10-29 | 25 | 1.3 | Planned Maintenance |
| Guangxi Huayi | Ethylene Method | 30 | 2026-09-25 | 2026-10-09 | 15 | 0.9 | Planned Maintenance |
| Hunan Xiangwei | Calcium Carbide Method | 20 | 2026-09-01 | - | Planned Maintenance | ||
| Celanese | Ethylene Method | 30 | 2026-10-20 | 2026-11-09 | 20 | 1.6 | Planned Maintenance |
| Shanghai Petrochemical | Calcium Carbide Method | 10 | 2026-10-22 | 2026-11-06 | 15 | 0.4 | Planned Maintenance |
Source: Chempricehub Information
On the downstream demand side, purchasing behavior is characterized by essential needs fulfillment, lacking momentum to chase higher prices. Some polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) units underwent maintenance or reduced loads; VAE emulsion industry operations remained relatively stable; EVA unit fluctuations were frequent. Following the National Day holiday, industry capacity utilization saw only a slight narrow-range improvement. Facing persistently rising raw material prices, downstream buyers exhibited clear resistance to high prices, mostly maintaining a strategy of purchasing based on immediate needs. Pre-holiday stockpiling was largely completed, resulting in weak willingness for concentrated restocking post-holiday. Market sentiment for new orders was quiet, with transactions primarily consisting of small-volume essential purchases and limited large-order increments. Consequently, the demand side's ability to drive the market remains weak.
Overall, the current VAM market is in a tug-of-war between supply contraction, firm costs, and weak downstream demand. Expectations of reduced supply remain the core support for the market, but insufficient acceptance of high prices by downstream users limits the momentum for sustained significant price hikes. In the short term, the domestic VAM market is expected to continue oscillating at high levels. Key factors to monitor include the implementation progress of unit maintenance, changes in glacial acetic acid and ethylene prices, and downstream terminal operating rates and procurement follow-up.
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