Port Inventory Depletion Boosts Basis, While Domestic End-User Demand Supports Firm Price Movement (Sep 16, 2026)

1. Key Focus Points

① Yulin Yan Kuang's methanol auction today started at a floor price of CNY 3,300/ton with a volume of 6,000 tons; the entire lot was successfully sold at the starting price of CNY 3,300/ton.

② Inner Mongolia ENN's Phase I 600,000 ton/year coal-to-methanol project shut down for maintenance on September 4. The preliminary plan is to restart on September 23, with expected product output by September 25. During this period, the Phase II 600,000 ton/year methanol project is also scheduled for simultaneous restart (currently shut down since July 1). Attention should be paid to the actual implementation status.

2. Market Trends and Outlook

Table 1: Summary of Domestic Methanol and Related Product Prices (Unit: CNY/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

[Figure 1: 2026 Methanol Price Trend in Key Regions (CNY/ton)]
[Figure 2: 2025-2026 Methanol Key Downstream Price Trends (CNY/ton)]
Data Source: Chempricehub Information

【Market Commentary】 Today, the domestic methanol spot price index stood at 3525.58, down by 10.02. Specifically, Taicang spot prices were at 3955 (+165), while Inner Mongolia North Line prices were at 3342.5 (-77.5). According to Chempricehub monitoring across 20 major cities, prices rose to varying degrees in 12 cities, with increases ranging from 25 to 210 CNY/ton. Overall trading sentiment in the domestic methanol market remained decent. Futures continued to strengthen, and port inventories saw significant drawdowns as expected. Circulating supply remains tight, compounded by active restocking from downstream users along the Yangtze River belt, providing strong support for basis levels. In inland regions, routine pre-holiday stockpiling by downstream users, short-covering by traders, and persistently low upstream inventories have boosted demand. Consequently, rigid demand from buyers entering at lower levels remains decent, suggesting a continuation of short-term bullish consolidation. Going forward, monitor the pace of restarts for maintenance-shut methanol projects and the sustained impact of rising freight costs.

3. Basis Analysis

[Figure 3: 2026 Methanol Basis Trend Chart (CNY/ton)]
Data Source: Chempricehub Information

In the afternoon session, methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) continued to rise. The MA2610 contract opened at 3,385 CNY/ton, hit a high of 3,578 CNY/ton and a low of 3,353 CNY/ton, closing at 3,545 CNY/ton, up 123 CNY/ton from the previous day's settlement. By close, open interest for the MA2609 contract stood at 350,000 lots, an increase of 9,500 lots from the previous trading day.

4. Production Dynamics

Table 2: Summary of Methanol and Downstream Production Dynamics

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

5. Price Forecast

6. Today, overall trading sentiment in the domestic methanol market was decent. Futures maintained strength, and port inventories experienced significant expected drawdowns. Circulating supply remains tight, supported by active restocking from downstream users along the Yangtze River, which strengthens basis levels. In inland areas, continued pre-holiday stockpiling by downstream sectors, short-covering by traders, and persistently low upstream inventories have provided support. As a result, rigid demand from buyers taking positions at lower levels remains adequate, pointing to continued short-term bullish consolidation. Key factors to watch include the pace of restarts for maintenance-shut methanol plants and the extent of ongoing freight cost increases.

7. In the medium to long term, the addition of methanol exporters and plant shutdowns by downstream users resisting high prices have alleviated the tightness in domestic methanol spot supply. With earlier high prices gradually retreating, attention should focus on the recovery of methanol production units and the degree of downstream demand reduction to assess whether they can continue to provide market support.

8. Market Sentiment

Table 3: Sentiment Expectations of Domestic Methanol Upstream and Downstream Participants

7. Related Products

Glacial Acetic Acid: Market prices surged significantly today. Factories face minimal sales pressure and are continuing to push prices higher. Traders hold limited inventory and are following price hikes. Most downstream users are executing long-term contracts, while spot buyers are purchasing primarily based on immediate needs. Chempricehub forecasts that glacial acetic acid prices will trend upward in the short term.

Formaldehyde: The formaldehyde market showed mixed movements today. Regional disparities emerged; in most domestic regions, prices adjusted slightly downward due to downstream price resistance and relatively high inventory levels. However, in Guangdong, prices rose sharply driven by increasing costs. Overall trading activity remained flat. Chempricehub forecasts that the formaldehyde market will stabilize and consolidate in the short term.

DME: The dimethyl ether (DME) market stabilized today. Operating rates at DME plants remain low, with factories focusing on selling existing inventories. Terminal demand continues to shrink, leading holders to maintain stable prices and wait-and-see attitudes. Industry participants are accepting goods only for rigid demand in small volumes. Chempricehub forecasts that the DME market will trade sideways in the short term.

8. Data Calendar

Table 4: Schedule of Domestic Methanol Data Releases (Unit: 10,000 tons)