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Lead-in: In November 2026, the sulfuric acid market will face three critical meetings within a span of just three weeks that are set to determine the market’s trajectory for 2027. These events include: the 26th Phosphate and Compound Fertilizer Production-Sales Conference hosted by the China Chemical Association in Wuhan from November 6–8; CESCO Asia Copper Week in Shanghai from November 17–19; and the H2 2026 Sulfur Industry Chain Market Exchange organized by the China Sulfuric Acid Industrial Association in Yichang from November 23–24. Each meeting addresses one of three key variables: fertilizer export policies, treatment and refining charges (TC) for copper concentrate long-term contracts, and negotiations regarding domestic guidance prices and export policies for sulfuric acid. Given that sulfuric acid sits at the intersection of being the primary raw material for phosphate fertilizers, a byproduct of copper smelting, and an export-controlled commodity, the outcomes of these meetings will directly impact its supply-demand balance and pricing.

Prior to this cluster of high-profile events, the October sulfuric acid market had already settled into a weak equilibrium characterized by slight oversupply, declining costs, and regional divergence. The Chempricehub monthly index for 98% sulfuric acid nationwide stood at RMB 1,391 per ton, marking a marginal month-on-month decrease of 0.43%. The supply-demand gap shifted from a shortage of 32,200 tons in September to a slight surplus of 59,500 tons in October. Meanwhile, the average monthly price of sulfur dropped sharply by 18.13% month-on-month to RMB 6,117 per ton, yet theoretical profits for sulfur-based acid production remained negative at -RMB 175.11 per ton. With phosphate fertilizer demand entering its off-season, operating rates hit low levels; capacity utilization for monoammonium phosphate (MAP) and diammonium phosphate (DAP) fell to 39.94% and 43.33%, respectively. As the largest consumption sector, this sluggish activity provided limited pull on sulfuric acid procurement.