① Sinopec's posted average price for pure benzene in October was RMB 10,410/ton, an increase of RMB 1,178/ton from September's RMB 9,232/ton.
② In October, the caprolactam market rose initially before declining. Upstream costs fluctuated at high levels, and the caprolactam market saw a tug-of-war between supply and demand, resulting in volatile price movements.
③ Caprolactam production in October totaled 542,900 tons, while downstream consumption was 523,000 tons, indicating a slightly loose supply structure.
In October, the average spot price of caprolactam in the East China market was approximately RMB 14,068/ton, representing a month-on-month increase of 0.59% and a year-on-year increase of 72.29%.
The caprolactam market in October followed a pattern of rising first and then falling, with the average price edging up slightly compared to September. After the National Day holiday, upstream crude oil and pure benzene markets continued their strong upward trend. The rise in pure benzene prices led Sinopec to adjust its posted price for pure benzene to RMB 10,800/ton, providing cost-side support for caprolactam. On the supply side, some caprolactam producers reduced output slightly after the holiday, which eased the ample supply situation somewhat. Producers raised product selling prices, pushing the caprolactam spot price up to RMB 14,300/ton. Later in the month, upstream pure benzene prices softened amid volatility, and sulfur prices declined, weakening the cost support for caprolactam. Furthermore, the supply structure remained slightly loose, and downstream buyers showed strong resistance to high raw material prices, primarily engaging in price-negotiation procurement. Consequently, caprolactam prices came under pressure and fell back to RMB 13,900/ton (delivered via bank acceptance bill).
Comparison of Price Changes by Domestic Region (Unit: RMB/ton)
| Region | Grade | Current Period Avg. Price | Previous Period Avg. Price | Same Period Last Year | MoM Change | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East China | Liquid | 14,068 | 13,985.23 | 8,165.28 | 0.59% | 72.29% |
Data Source: Chempricehub Information
The current caprolactam supply structure is characterized by weak equilibrium, with the supply-demand gap turning positive.
Regarding supply, caprolactam production in October reached 542,900 tons, a month-on-month increase of 27,800 tons, or 5.37%.
Regarding demand, domestic downstream consumption of caprolactam in October was 523,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 8,400 tons, or 1.63%.
November Forecast: The caprolactam market in November is expected to consolidate at high levels, with the monthly average price likely to decline slightly. On the cost side, although fundamentals for pure benzene are expected to weaken, the reality of low port inventories and the strong performance of raw materials such as crude oil provide significant bottom support for prices. The reference price range for East China is estimated at RMB 10,200–10,800/ton. On the supply side, Yongrong Technology plans maintenance for one production line, and Lunan Chemical plans to restart operations in November, leading to an overall looser supply structure. On the demand side, utilization rates for downstream Polyamide 6 (PA6) are trending lower in some areas, and spinning demand remains weak, suggesting that supply-demand fundamentals may continue to constrain prices. Overall, while upstream costs will continue to provide floor support to the market, the supply-demand balance remains soft. Therefore, the caprolactam market price range for November is predicted to be RMB 13,700–14,100/ton (delivered via bank acceptance bill).
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