I. Key Points
Overseas Benzene Prices: FOB Korea rose by USD 3 to USD 1,145/ton; CFR China rose by USD 3 to USD 1,162/ton. FOB Rotterdam fell by USD 10 to USD 1,342/ton; FOB US Gulf Coast (USG) fell by 5 cents to 566 cents/gallon.
Core Logic: Bearish sentiment stemming from the cost side yesterday has partially recovered. Although port inventories have accumulated, they remain at low levels, and the tight spot market circulation pattern remains unchanged. Pre-holiday stocking demand has been released. The market is caught in a tug-of-war between low inventory support and easing costs, maintaining a volatile but slightly strong trend during the day.
| Region | Sep 21 | Sep 20 | Change Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| FOB Korea | 1145 | -- | -- |
| CFR China | 1162 | -- | -- |
| East China Market | 9605 | 9560 | 0.47% |
| Shandong Market | 9699 | 9643 | 0.58% |
| Notes: | |||
| 1. FOB Korea and CFR China benzene prices are in USD/ton; domestic benzene prices are in CNY/ton. | |||
| 2. Benzene prices represent the average closing price of mainstream markets. | |||
| 3. All RMB prices in the table above are spot exchange rates, tax-inclusive, ex-works prices. | |||
| 4. The change rate refers to the period-over-period change. |
II. Market Outlook
Expectations for US-Iran negotiations are rising, putting downward pressure on international crude oil prices, though geopolitical risks have not fully dissipated. Domestic benzene operating rates have increased week-over-week, but some refineries have implemented defensive load reductions, causing supply recovery to fall short of expectations. With low inventories in East China and strengthening spot basis, the northern market is being boosted. Today's spot benzene prices are expected to consolidate with a slight upward bias.
| Data Item | Release Date | Previous Period Data | Current Period Trend Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benzene Port Inventory (East China) | Monday 16:00 PM | 38,000 tons | ↘ |
| Benzene Weekly Operating Rate | Thursday 18:00 PM | 70.06% | ↗ |
| Benzene Weekly Profit | Thursday 18:00 PM | 1,746 CNY/ton | ↘ |
| 1. ↓↑ indicates significant fluctuations, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%. | |||
| 2. ↗ ↘ indicate narrow-range fluctuations, highlighting data with changes within 0-3%. |
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